The fourth round action at the 2025 WTA Madrid Open kick-starts on Monday, April 28 with Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff and Mirra Andreeva expected to take to court here. You can get the best predictions and tips for the day from this tournament here.
Aryna Sabalenka v Peyton Stearns
Aryna Sabalenka and Peyton Stearns meet for the second time, with Sabalenka leading the head-to-head 1-0 after saving four match points to edge the American at Indian Wells last season
Madrid’s high-bounce clay is tailor-made for Sabalenka’s first-strike tennis: a booming serve, a ferocious forehand and the confidence of a two-time champion here (2021, 2023). Her 2025 résumé underlines that dominance—titles in Brisbane and Miami, finals in Indian Wells and Stuttgart, and a gritty three-set win over Elise Mertens to reach this round
When her depth is dialled-in, the World No.1’s power penetrates even the heaviest clay.
Stearns plays a more classic clay-court brand: heavy topspin from the forehand, plenty of margin over the net and a willingness to construct points patiently.
Those traits earned her a WTA 250 title in Rabat last year and, this week, back-to-back Madrid upsets over 15-seed Amanda Anisimova and local hope Rebeka Masarova—dropping just two games in the latter
Still, the world No.46 has struggled for consistency in 2025, arriving in Spain with a 6-9 tour record and only one main-draw win on clay before this event
If Stearns extends rallies, her topspin can push Sabalenka behind the baseline; but Madrid’s quicker conditions favour the Belarusian’s first-strike instincts and superior experience in tight moments.
Sabalenka v Stearns Tip: Sabalenka to win in straight sets: 2/5
Iga Swiatek v Diana Shnaider
Iga Świątek meets Diana Shnaider for the first time on tour in what will be the fourth round of the Madrid Open.
Madrid’s lively clay has long been Świątek’s playground: the Pole is the defending champion and rides an eight-match win-streak at this venue after a tough win over Alexandra Eala and a routine one over Linda Noskova in the first two rounds
Built on a heavy topspin forehand and supreme slide-and-strike movement, her game translates seamlessly to altitude clay, where the bounce exaggerates her kick serve and nets her quick first-strike openings.
Shnaider, a 21-year-old left-hander, brings fearless shot-making and plenty of spin from her forehand wing. The Russian is 9-3 on clay this year, including two straight-set wins over Katie Volynets and Anastasija Sevastova to reach this round
Earlier clay stops showed promise—Charleston and Stuttgart round-of-16 runs—but also lapses in patience against elite opposition.
The tactical key will be the difference: if Świątek pushes Shnaider into extended rallies with her trademark heavy topspin, she should control patterns. Shnaider will look to shorten points, using her lefty serve out wide on the ad side and flattening her backhand down the line to avoid Świątek’s forehand cage.
Świątek’s superior clay résumé—three Roland Garros crowns and a tour-best 84 percent clay-court winning rate—makes her the clear favourite, but Shnaider’s fearless baseline aggression gives the upset outsider’s puncher’s chance.
Swiatek v Shnaider Tip: Swiatek to win in straight: 1/2
Cori Gauff v Belinda Bencic
Coco Gauff and Belinda Bencic square off for the fifth time, with their rivalry locked at 2-2 after Bencic edged Gauff in three sets at Indian Wells last month
Now they meet on Madrid’s altitude clay, a surface that rewards Gauff’s explosive kick serve and heavy topspin but can also amplify Bencic’s flat, early-timed groundstrokes.
Gauff has played her way into form this week, rallying past Dayana Yastremska and then easing past Ann Li to reach the last 16
The No. 4 seed is 9-2 on clay since the start of 2024, helped by improved forehand control and her exceptional court coverage. Earlier in 2025 she beat Bencic in a three-set Melbourne thriller, signalling sharper problem-solving in tight matches
Bencic, returning from a brief hip lay-off, has strung together three straight Madrid wins—over Zeynep Sonmez, Clara Tauson and Beatriz Haddad Maia—without dropping a set
The Olympic champion’s backhand remains her biggest weapon, but on clay she needs a high first-serve percentage to avoid long, physical exchanges where Gauff’s athleticism shines.
If Bencic controls the centre and strikes early, she can shorten points; yet Madrid’s higher bounce tilts the margins toward Gauff’s topspin patterns.
Gauff v Bencic Tip: Three sets in the match: 6/5
Mirra Andreeva v Yulia Starodubtseva
Mirra Andreeva and Yuliia Starodubtseva meet for the first time on tour.
Andreeva, still only 17, has made Madrid her personal launchpad: the No. 7 seed is into the last 16 for a third straight year after straight-sets wins over Magdalena Frech and Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, extending her career record in the Spanish capital to 9-2
Built on early timing, a heavy two-handed backhand and superb sliding, her baseline game thrives on altitude clay, where her topspin jumps and her court craft shines.
Qualifier Starodubtseva is living her best week on red dirt. The Ukrainian posted her first tour-level clay win over Linda Fruhvirtova, then stunned No. 18 seed Liudmila Samsonova from a set and break down to notch her second career Top-20 victory
A former college standout, she plays flat off both wings and looks to step inside the baseline quickly; Madrid’s pace rewards that aggression, but the higher bounce can expose her lower contact points, especially on the backhand.
Season form tilts heavily toward Andreeva: she opened 2025 with a Dubai semi-final and Miami quarter-final before hitting clay, while Starodubtseva arrived here on a seven-match tour-level losing streak dating back to Beijing 2024
If the qualifier red-lines, she can make inroads, yet Andreeva’s comfort in longer rallies and superior clay résumé make her the clear favourite.
Andreeva v Starodubtseva Tip: Andreeva to win in straight sets: 1/3
Other WTA Rouen Open 2025 Predictions for the Day
- Madison Keys v Donna Vekic: Three sets in the match: 7/5
- Marta Kostyuk v Anastasia Potapova: Three sets in the match: 6/5
- Maria Sakkari v Elina Svitolina: Svitolina to win in straight sets: 6/5
- Ekaterina Alexandrova v Moyuka Uchijima: Alexandrova to win in straight sets: 5/6
