All the quarterfinal matches at the 2025 ATP Madrid Masters will be played on Thursday, May 1 as Jack Draper, Daniil Medvedev and Lorenzo Musetti lead the charge. You can get the best predictions and tips for the day from this tournament here.
Casper Ruud v Daniil Medvedev
Daniil Medvedev and Casper Ruud know each other’s patterns well: they have faced off three times and Medvedev has won every single time but none of those matches have come on clay.
Ruud’s game is built for red clay. The Norwegian’s heavy topspin forehand kicks shoulder-high, his kick-serve drags opponents wide, and he is happy to grind for hours: He has a lifetime record of 245-110 across all tournaments on clay, with 11 tour titles.
2025 has been not been vintage Ruud though—he has done nothing of note on clay, losing third round at Monte-Carlo and quarterfinals in Barcelona but will be chuffed with his performance here after winning three straight-setters to reach the quarterfinals.
Medvedev’s clay revival is newer. Since lifting Rome 2023 he has learned to drive his flat groundstrokes through the surface and defend from his trademark deep position.
He is 4-1 on clay this spring after a Monte-Carlo third round and Madrid wins over Juan Manuel Cerundolo and Brand Nakashima brought his 2025 mark to 16-8 for the season. The quicker Madrid clay skids his backhand low while giving Ruud extra bounce on the forehand—an intriguing stylistic clash.
Ruud v Medvedev Tip: Ruud to win: 3/5
Lorenzo Musetti v Gabriel Diallo
Lorenzo Musetti and Gabriel Diallo meet for the third time on tour, with both players having won once apiece before this.
Musetti, 22, is a classic shot-maker: a fluid one-handed backhand, heavy topspin forehand and drop-shot disguise that flourishes on clay’s higher bounce.
He owns a solid career record on clay and is 9-1 on it in 2025, highlighted by a Monte-Carlo final and tidy Madrid wins over Tomás Etcheverry, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alex de Minaur. The altitude here gives extra kick to his serve-plus-forehand combo, while his knack for angles drags opponents off court.
Diallo, a 198 cm Canadian lucky-loser, relies on first-strike power—an explosive 230 km/h serve and flat forehand hit early.
Clay is a learning curve (TennisExplorer shows 10-9 career) but the faster Madrid dirt skids his shots low; that formula produced marathon upsets of Cameron Norrie and Grigor Dimitrov in his previous two rounds.
That’s pushed his 2025 clay mark to 5-1 in main draws but he has lost a couple in the qualifiers too. Still, movement into the forehand corner remains vulnerable against Musetti’s drop-shot-lob patterns.
Musetti v Diallo Tip: Musetti to win in straight sets: 3/5
Francisco Cerundolo v Jakub Mensik
They have faced off once before this with Francisco Cerúndolo defeating Jakub Menšík at Beijing last year—so Thursday’s Madrid quarter-final offers a first glimpse of how two very different skill-sets collide on clay.
Cerúndolo, 26, is a natural clay-courter. The Buenos Aires native’s game is anchored by a heavy topspin forehand, subtle drop-shots and sure-footed sliding.
His 2025 campaign has gathered pace since an Argentina Open final and he then made the semifinal in Munich. A confident straight-sets Madrid run including a shock win over Alexander Zverev, lifted his clay record this year to 15-5.
Madrid’s faster dirt gives his forehand extra penetration while his kick serve jumps shoulder-high.
Menšík, the 19-year-old Czech, is all first-strike ambition: a 135 mph (217 km/h) serve, flat two-handed backhand and willingness to finish at net.
Clay remains his steepest learning curve but he has ridden that formula to upset wins over Ethan Quinn, Ben Shelton and Alexander Bublik.
Cerundolo v Mensik Tip: Three sets in the match: 6/5
Jack Draper v Matteo Arnaldi
Jack Draper and Matteo Arnaldi meet for for the first time in their careers.
Draper, 23, marries a strong left-arm serve with a heavy, topspin forehand that jumps even higher on quick dirt. His clay résumé is still modest yet 2025 looks to be a breakthrough year: a maiden Masters-1000 crown at Indian Wells followed by a straight-set demolition of Tommy Paul earlier in this tournament.
Arnaldi, 24, is a natural mover on red dirt and is on a four-match winning streak that includes wins over Novak Djokovic and Frances Tiafoe.
Tactically, Draper must dominate with serve-plus-one aggression and keep points short; Arnaldi will look to pull the Briton wide, then feather drops to expose still-developing clay footwork. Form and firepower tilt narrowly toward Draper, but altitude makes this closer than rankings suggest.
Draper v Arnaldi Tip: Three sets in the match: 7/5
