As the first quarter of the 2025 ATP season comes to a close and the tour moves to the clay building up to the second Grand Slam of the year, we take a look at what the year has looked like thus far. It has surely had its fair share of surprises and the unexpected, writes UTG columnist Samir Talwar.
The ATP season began with what were predictable expectations along the lines of the strengthening Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz rivalry for pole position in the sport, the ageing but evergreen Novak Djokovic eyeing for #25 and the players like Alexander Zverev, Daniil Medvedev and others looking to continue to be relevant for the big prizes and move away from the periphery.
While some of the expected trends continued; like Sinner looking as clinical as ever on the Melbourne hard courts, Zverev continuing his consistent run, Djokovic being a force as always at the first major; February and March definitely did not tread along the predicted path.
Going into February, and getting ready for the first ATP 500 of the year in Rotterdam, the tennis world was informed of the suspension from the tour, of Sinner till the latter stages of the clay season (returning potentially at the Rome Masters 1000).
While for some it was closure to the long drawn ‘doping’ saga from last Spring, some felt he got away ‘easy’, while others felt the suspended sessions of the tour were cradled to ensure no Grand Slam impact. Just like he is on court, Sinner was a man of few words on the topic as well.
Sinner had undoubtedly been the most dominant force on the tour for the latter part of 2024 and lived up to his top billing with an almost flawless performance to win the first major of the tour. Critics were of the view that his suspension would open up the tour for Alcaraz and Zverev’s dominance, but they have been proven to be quite mistaken.
Zverev with a mathematical shot at the world number one ranking, headed to the LatAm clay swing only to lose in the final eight in both Buenos Aires and Rio. A less than inspiring performance followed in Acupulco and then came the early losses at both Indian Wells and Miami, putting him under pressure to perform in the clay swing now.
While Alcaraz did very well to win his first ever indoor title in Rotterdam, he let go of a strong hold on the final set against Jiri Lehechka in the quarter-finals at Doha.
Coming in as the obvious favorite in Indian Wells and looking in ominous form heading into the final four, he played a dismal first set againt Briton Jack Draper and surprisingly lost the decider after a 6-0 second set.
An unbelievable second round less to veteran Belgian David Goffin in Miami put an end to an underwhelming first quarter of the season. While Alcaraz still heads to clay as the favorite, one remains less assured now of what clay brings for him.
Novak Djokovic played a mastermind game of chess to win his quarter-final against Alcaraz in Australia but then an injury had him withdraw after losing the breaker in the first set of the semis versus Zverev.
Poor losses against Matteo Berretini and Botic Van Der Zandschulp followed in Doha and Indian Wells, but a good run in Miami seeking ATP title #100 fell short in the finale!
Daniil Medvedev has continued to look below par; and while Denis Shapovalov, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Andrey Rublev have all won ATP titles, consistency has definitely not been the order of the day for any of them.
Brazilian teenager Joao Fonseca has been quite the sensation, defeating Andrey Rublev at the Aussie Open opener, winning the Buenos Aires ATP 250 and making a run to the round of 16 in Miami in front of courts that had the feel of being in Brazil with the amount of support Fonseca generated.
The biggest surprises of the year thus far on the ATP tour have undoubtedly been at the Masters 1000 tournaments. There were a few listed as potential winners at Indian Wells, but do not think anyone had Englishman Jack Draper at the top or close to the top of their list.
Convincing opening wins against Fonseca and Brooksby were followed by what were expected to be stiff challenges in the American desert against home favorites Ben Shelton and Taylor Fritz. But, Draper rose to the occasion with straight set wins against both and set up a semi-final showdown against Carlos Alcaraz going for a Three-Pete.
A mix of strong play by Draper and poor play by the Spaniard resulted in a 6-1 first set win for the Briton; but when Alcaraz won a quickfire 6-0 second set, the writing looked all but on the wall for Draper. A display of fortitude and excellent play by the underdog in the final set sealed the match and caused one of the biggest upsets at the ‘Tennis Paradise’ in recent times.
Draper went on to win a very one-sided final against young Holger Rune making a sort of a revival to his career but falling way short against the British number one. The Indian Wells title was definitely the biggest win of Draper’s career thus far and put him on the map as a force to reckon with for the rest of the season most likely.
As the tour moved to Miami for the second leg of the Masters 1000, there were the usual contenders like Alcaraz and Djokovic among others and of course the Indian Wells title holder Jack Draper as the dark horse.
Draper’s run was cut short by another rising teenager, Jakub Mensik of the Czech Republic with an early loss in Miami. Mensik put on a serving masterclass to take the Briton in two straight tiebreaks. The Czech continued his stint with impressive wins against in-from Frenchman Arthur Fils and a strong semi-final win in another strong show of serving against home favorite Taylor Frtiz.
A notable underdog in the final against mentor and 24-time Grand Slam winner Novak Djokovic, the Czech put up the ultimate serving show winning two tight tiebreaks and becoming the second youngest ever winner of the Miami Masters 1000 behind Carlos Alcaraz.
With the list of holders on the Sunshine Masters trophies including its latest ‘deserving and enthralling’ but unexpected champions, the season has thrown itself into a phase of the unpredictable which brings with it more parity and more excitement as the second quarter of the season and the clay swing get kickstarted.
