World number one Aryna Sabalenka will be up against the 14th-ranked Madison Keys in the final of the 2025 Australian Open which will be played on Saturday, January 25. Get all the Aryna Sabalenka v Madison Keys predictions, betting tips and odds for this encounter in the section below.
- Get all the remaining tennis betting tips and predictions of the day here
- Also read what’s a Tennis Betting Accumulator here
Sabalenka v Keys Head to Head
These two players have featured in five previous meetings and Sabalenka leads 4-1. The last of these meetings came in Beijing last year and Sabalenka had won that in straight sets. The only win for Keys happened in Berlin in 2021.
Sabalenka Routs Badosa
Aryna Sabalenka and Paula Badosa are quite good friends on the women’s tour but none of that showed when they met in their semifinal. None of that translated into any free points, especially from Sabalenka, who romped to a 6-4, 6-2 victory against the former world number two.
Having been taken to the third set by Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the quarterfinal, Sabalenka needed less than an hour and a half to clinch her place in the final.
She was broken just once in the encounter – which came in her very first service game – but from that point onward, there was no looking back for the Belarusian.
Sabalenka broke right back and then doubled the dose in the very next game to take a decisive advantage.
The world number one quickly wrapped up the set and did not face a single break-point after that, breaking Badosa two more times in the second set.
That took Sabalenka to 11-0 for the season – which includes a title win in Brisbane – and a 12th win here will bring her a hat-trick of Australian Open titles.
Keys Outguns Swiatek in Classic
It took Madison Keya three sets and a thrilling final set tie-breaker to clinch a stunning victory over the world number two Iga Swiatek.
In a match that went on for two hours and 37 minutes, Keys defeated Swiatek 5-7, 6-1, 7-6 (8) to reach just her second Grand Slam final and the first since the 2017 US Open where she was beaten by Sloane Stephens.
After preventing Swiatek from serving out the first set, Keys was broken at 5-6 to allow her opponent to take the set. But Keys, who had come into the match on the back of a 10-match winning streak, broke Swiatek four times in the second set to level things around and push the match into a decider.
Both players saved a plethora of break-points, taking the score of 5-5 without a break of serve. Swiatek finally drew first blood with a break in the 11th game but saw her serving quality drop off dramatically, getting broken despite getting a match-point.
In the tie-breaker that followed Keys came back from 2-4, 4-6 and 5-7 down to win it 10-8 and complete a stunning victory.
Sabalenka v Keys Prediction
It’s tough to bet against Sabalenka but as we have been saying in these columns, if there’s one person who can test some of the best in the world right now, it’s Madison Keys.
The difference is that it’s a final and things change dramatically, especially for someone who isn’t used to playing at this stage which Keys clearly isn’t as compared to Sabalenka.
Sabalenka v Keys Tips
- Over 19.5 games in the match: 8/15
- Sets Handicap Keys +1.5: 10/11
