The third round matches at the 2025 ATP Madrid Masters will be played on Tuesday, April 29 as Stefanos Tsitsipas and Taylor Fritz lead the charge. You can get the best predictions and tips for the day from this tournament here.
Stefanos Tsitsipas v Lorenzo Musetti
Stefanos Tsitsipas and Lorenzo Musetti meet for the seventh time in a tantalising third-round clash, with Tsitsipas leading the series 5-1 – though Musetti claimed their most recent encounter in Monte Carlo this month, roaring back 1-6, 6-3, 6-4 en route to the final.
Madrid’s high-bounce clay historically favours Tsitsipas’ heavy topspin forehand and kick serve, weapons that helped the Greek reach quarter-finals in Barcelona and Monte Carlo before a grinding three-set win over Jan-Lennard Struff in his opening Madrid match.
The world No.18 still hunts a first title of 2025, but his 11-4 record on clay this season suggests the rebuilt backhand and renewed net forays under coach Mark Philippoussis are paying dividends.
Musetti, by contrast, plays with classical variety: a single-handed backhand that can knife low or rip high, delicate drop-shots and feline court coverage. Those skills translated into a career-best Masters 1000 final at Monte Carlo, where he defeated Tsitsipas, Alex de Minaur and Matteo Berrettini before falling to Carlos Alcaraz
Expect lengthy cat-and-mouse rallies: Tsitsipas will try to dictate with forehand heaviness, while Musetti looks to disrupt rhythm with slice, angle and abrupt pace changes. Madrid’s altitude marginally aids Tsitsipas’ serve, yet Musetti’s recent mastery and confidence could keep the Greek under scoreboard pressure.
Tsitsipas v Musetti Tip: Three sets in the match: 6/5
Taylor Fritz v Casper Ruud
Taylor Fritz and Casper Ruud square off for a place in the Madrid quarter-finals with Ruud leading the head-to-head 2-1, thanks to victories at Roland Garros 2024 and the 2022 ATP Finals, while Fritz struck back at last year’s US Open.
Altitude clay tilts in contrasting ways. Fritz’s game is built on a 220 km/h first serve and a flattened forehand—both gain free speed in Madrid’s thinner air—but his heavier backhand take-back can be rushed when the ball sits up high.
Ruud, by contrast, owns one of tour’s heaviest topspin forehands and slides instinctively; his kick serve rears above shoulder height here, giving him first-ball control in baseline exchanges.
Form lines favour the Norwegian. Ruud opened 2025 by retaining his Buenos Aires crown, then posted a Monte Carlo semi-final and a gritty three-set win over Matteo Arnaldi in his Madrid opener to move to 16-5 on clay this season.
Fritz’s clay résumé is slimmer, yet he showed progress with a quarter-final in Houston and a muscular comeback over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to reach this round, lifting his 2025 record to 4-2 on the surface.
If Fritz lands 70 % first serves he can keep rallies short, but over the course of best-of-three, Ruud’s superior clay movement and forehand weight should tell.
Fritz v Ruud Tip: Ruud to win: 4/5
Daniil Medvedev v Brandon Nakashima
World No.10 Daniil Medvedev faces No.32 Brandon Nakashima in the Madrid Open round of 16 on clay. Medvedev leads their head-to-head 1-0 after a straight-sets win at Indian Wells 2023.
This is a classic experience vs youth matchup, with contrasting styles meeting in Madrid’s high-altitude clay conditions.
The 29-year-old Russian is known for his big first serve and flat groundstrokes. Those traits haven’t always translated well to clay’s higher bounce and slower pace, but Medvedev has improved on the surface – he reached the Madrid quarterfinal in 2024.
His 2025 season has been solid if inconsistent, highlighted by a semifinal run at Indian Wells. So far in Madrid he has looked comfortable, even cruising past qualifier Juan Manuel Cerúndolo 6-2, 6-2 in the previous round.
Brandon Nakashima is a steady baseliner with a strong two-handed backhand and compact, flat strokes. He typically excels on hard courts, but his consistency and court coverage serve him well on clay.
Before this week Nakashima had never gone beyond the first round in Madrid, yet 2025 has been a breakthrough – he reached a clay semifinal in Houston and made the last 16 at Indian Wells and Miami.
Here he hasn’t dropped a set, defeating Sebastian Ofner and Flavio Cobolli convincingly to make his first Masters clay R16. Medvedev’s experience and recent form give him the edge.
Medvedev v Nakashima Tip: Medvedev to win in straight sets: 1/1
Jack Draper v Matteo Berrettini
Jack Draper and Matteo Berrettini collide in a heavyweight third-round encounter that already has a back-story. Draper leads the head-to-head 2-0, beating the Italian in the 2024 Stuttgart final on grass and again in February’s Doha quarter-final, both in three tight sets. Madrid’s high-altitude clay adds a fresh tactical twist.
Draper, the 1.93 m left-hander, marries a 220 km/h first serve with a heavy, topspin forehand that jumps even higher in the thin Spanish air.
Clay is still his least proven surface, but 2025 has been a breakthrough: an Indian Wells Masters title in March and a clean two-match start here, capped by a composed 6-3 6-4 win over Tallon Griekspoor. He is 6-2 on clay this season and chasing a first Masters quarter-final on the dirt.
Berrettini brings one of the tour’s heaviest forehands and a biting slice backhand that stays low even on clay. The 2021 Madrid runner-up has rebuilt momentum after an injury-ravaged 2024; his 200th career win came two days ago when he roared back to defeat Marcos Giron in three sets. The Italian is 12-8 in 2025 and owns altitude pedigree, but he has yet to defeat a Top-10 opponent on clay this year.
If Draper lands a high first-serve percentage and attacks Berrettini’s backhand wing, the Briton’s recent confidence edge could prevail; the Italian must shorten points and convert forehand chances to turn the tide.
Draper v Berrettini Tip: Draper to win: 4/7
Other ATP Madrid Masters 2025 Predictions for the Day
- Alexander Zverev v Francisco Cerundolo: Cerundolo to win: 7/4
- Alex de Minaur v Denis Shapovalov: De Minaur to win: 5/18
- Tommy Paul v Karen Khachanov: Paul to win: 8/11
- Jakub Mensik v Alexander Bublik: Mensik to win: 2/5
