The 2025 WTA Madrid Open continues on Wednesday, April 30 with Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff among those in action for the day. You can get the best predictions and tips for the day from this tournament here.
Iga Swiatek v Madison Keys
Iga Świątek leads the WTA head-to-head 4-2, all on hard or clay, including straight-set victories at Rome 2024 and here in Madrid last spring; Keys’ successes having come at Cincinnati 2023 and earlier this year at the Australian Open.
Wednesday’s rematch pits the tour’s most reliable clay-court engine against one of its purest first-strike hitters on the Caja Mágica’s lively dirt.
Świątek’s trademark mix of heavy topspin forehands, elastic court coverage and a kicker that jumps shoulder-high at altitude make her a tough player on clay but she hasn’t been her ruthless self this year: her 2025 clay record stands at 4-1 after falling in the quarterfinals of the Stuttgart Open.
She carved out three-set wins over Alexandra Eala and Diana Shnaider – another indicator of her struggles this year.
Keys rides a simpler equation—serve big, thump the forehand, finish early. The American began 2025 by winning the Australian Open and has looked sharp this week, overcoming Lucia Bronzetti, Anna Kalinskaya and Donna Vekic in straight sets.
Yet her career clay win percentage sits at 62 per cent, and Madrid’s higher bounce can send her flatter backhand sailing long if timing drifts.
Keys must land most of her first serves and red-line the return to rush Świątek’s loopy take-back; otherwise the world No. 1’s patience and weight of shot should grind her down.
Swiatek v Keys Tip: Three sets in the match: 6/5
Aryna Sabalenka v Marta Kostyuk
There have been two previous meetings and Sabalenka leads 2-0, both straight-set wins (Dubai 2022, Roland Garros 2023). Wednesday will be their first clash in 22 months.
Madrid’s altitude clay turbo-charges Sabalenka’s power game: a booming first serve and flat, early-struck forehand that skid through the court. Kostyuk counters with an explosive two-handed backhand, keen court-coverage and frequent drop-shots, tools that can disrupt the Belarusian’s rhythm if rallies stretch.
Sabalenka, twice a Madrid champion (2021, 2023), is 5-1 on clay this season. She reached the Stuttgart final last week and has dropped just one set en route to her fourth Madrid quarter-final, beating Elise Mertens in three and Peyton Stearns 6-2, 6-4 on Tuesday
Kostyuk is enjoying a breakthrough spring.
The world number 36 made the quarterfinal in Doha and fourth round in Miami and has compiled a 3-0 clay record, including Madrid upsets of Emma Raducanu, Veronika Kudermetova and, most impressively, Anastasia Potapova 6-3, 6-2 to reach her first Masters 1000 quarter-final
Kostyuk must get a lot of her first serves in and force Sabalenka wide with sharp angles; otherwise the top seed’s first-strike pattern should dictate. Sabalenka’s lifetime 17-4 record in Madrid and heavier baseline weight still make her clear favourite.
Sabalenka v Kostyuk Tip: Sabalenka to win in straight sets:3/4
Coco Gauff v Mirra Andreeva
Coco Gauff leads 2-0, both victories coming in 2023: a three-set tussle at Roland Garros and a straight-sets win at the US Open. Wednesday marks their first meeting in nearly two years – and their first on Madrid’s altitude clay.
Andreeva, 18, plays with early timing and heavy topspin off both wings; the high bounce here exaggerates her kick serve and lets her redirect pace with a two-handed backhand that is already tour-class.
Gauff owns the tour’s quickest first step and a biting kick serve of her own, but her flatter backhand can sit up if timing drifts – something Andreeva will target with high-heavy forehands.
Andreeva is 4-1 on clay this year and loves the Caja Mágica: she made the fourth round as a 15-year-old debutante and was a quarterfinalist last year.
This week she brushed aside Marie Bouzkova, Magdalena Frech and Yulia Starodubtseva to reach another WTA 1000 quarter-final of 2025, lifting her season record to 24-5.
Gauff, a former Roland Garros finalist, is 4-1 on clay this year after tight wins over Dayana Yastremska and Belinda Bencic; her 2025 highlight remains her United Cup title on hard courts.
The teenager’s comfort in Madrid conditions and fearless shot-making make this close to a coin-flip.
Gauff v Andreeva Tip: Gauff to win: 1/1
Elina Svitolina v Moyuka Uchijima
This will be the second meeting between these two players with Elina Svitolina having defeated Moyuka Uchijima at the Paris Olympics last year.
Uchijima, 23, has erupted as Madrid’s breakout story. The Japanese counter-puncher takes the ball early and deploys a brisk two-handed backhand to redirect pace.
Altitude clay aids her newly heavier forehand, and the results are startling: four straight wins capped by upsets of Ons Jabeur, Jessica Pegula and Ekaterina Alexandrova, the latter propelling her into her first WTA 1000 quarter-final.
She is riding a nine-match Madrid win streak dating back to last year’s ITF title and owns a 6-1 clay record this season.
Svitolina arrives on a tear of her own. The No. 17 seed extended her season clay streak to eight matches by dismissing Elena Rybakina and Maria Sakkari without dropping a set, booking a maiden Madrid quarter-final after 10 prior attempts.
The Ukrainian thrives on red dirt with elastic defence, a rolling topspin forehand and a disguised backhand down the line that punishes short replies; she owns 150 career clay victories.
Tactically, Uchijima will look to get her first serves in order and step inside the baseline to rob Svitolina of rally rhythm. If rallies lengthen, the veteran’s depth and court coverage should prove decisive.
Svitolina v Uchijima Tip: Svitolina to win in straight sets: 3/4
