The remaining fourth round matches at the 2025 ATP Madrid Masters will be played on Wednesday, April 30 as Jack Draper and Alex de Minaur lead the charge. You can get the best predictions and tips for the day from this tournament here.
Jack Draper v Tommy Paul
Jack Draper holds a 3-2 edge in the Lexus ATP Head2Head, all on hard or grass courts, after edging Paul in Acapulco and Adelaide last year, while the American replied at Queen’s and the Australian Open. Wednesday marks their first clay meeting—and the altitude clay of Madrid adds extra spice.
The 23-year-old Briton is transforming from big-serve prodigy into a genuine all-surface threat. His left-handed delivery tops 220 km/h and his heavy forehand jumps even higher in the thin Spanish air.
Draper is 3-1 on clay this season and brimming with confidence after lifting his maiden Masters 1000 crown at Indian Wells in March and dispatching Matteo Berrettini in straight sets to reach this round.
Paul’s game is built on elastic movement and all-court creativity. The 27-year-old already owns a Houston semi-final in 2025, compiling a 4-1 record on the dirt.
His heavy topspin forehand and deft drop-shots thrive at altitude, but Madrid’s quicker conditions also reward Draper’s first-strike tennis.
Expect a tactical tussle: Draper will look to shorten points with serve-plus-one aggression; Paul aims to extend rallies and expose the Briton’s still-developing backhand defence.
Given Draper’s recent title surge and superior serve numbers this week, the slight edge tilts to the Brit—but razor-thin margins separate them.
Draper v Paul Tip: Draper to win in three sets: 7/2
Alex de Minaur v Lorenzo Musetti
Lorenzo Musetti holds a 2-1 edge over Alex de Minaur, winning their two most recent clashes: Queen’s 2024 and this month’s Monte-Carlo semifinal, where the Italian came from a set down on clay. Now they square off again on Madrid’s dirt, a surface that adds intrigue to their contrasting styles.
Musetti’s classical toolkit—a flowing one-handed backhand, heavy topspin forehand and deft drop-shots—thrives when the bounce sits up.
The 22-year-old is 8-1 on clay in 2025, highlighted by that Monte-Carlo run to his maiden Masters final and tidy Madrid wins over Tomás Etcheverry and Stefanos Tsitsipas. Altitude empowers his kick serve and allows him to pull de Minaur off the court with angles.
De Minaur remains the tour’s premier retriever, but 2025 has seen added bite: a career-best Monte-Carlo semifinal (beating Medvedev en route) and a 24-8 season record after subduing Denis Shapovalov on Tuesday.
His flatter forehand penetrates through Madrid’s quicker clay, and his speed lets him counter Musetti’s variety, yet he must take time away from the Italian’s backhand wing—something he managed in their lone win (Australian Open 2022).
Expect cat-and-mouse rallies punctuated by sudden aggression. If de Minaur’s first-serve percentage hovers above 65 %, his transition game could tilt the balance; otherwise Musetti’s topspin artistry may repeat Monte-Carlo’s storyline.
de Minaur v Musetti Tip: Three sets in the match: 6/5
Frances Tiafoe v Matteo Arnaldi
Frances Tiafoe leads Matteo Arnaldi 1-0 in their ATP Head2Head, the American rallying from two sets down to win a Wimbledon first-round thriller last July. Their clay-court debut arrives on Madrid’s fast, high-bounce dirt and both men bring contrasting momentum.
Tiafoe’s explosive first step and heavy forehand thrive when altitude quickens conditions, yet clay has long been his toughest surface.
That narrative is shifting: the world No. 17 reached the Houston final three weeks ago and has looked sharp in Madrid, dismissing Alexandre Muller after having defeated Luciano Darderi in the previous round. His 2025 clay record stands at 6-3, powered by a first-serve percentage hovering near 70 per cent.
Arnaldi, by contrast, is a natural mover on red dirt. The 24-year-old’s whippy forehand and disguised drop-shot flourished in a headline-grabbing upset of Novak Djokovic three days ago, and he backed that up by ousting Damir Džumhur to reach his first Masters 1000 fourth round.
Altitude amplifies his kicking serve and allows him to pull Tiafoe off court with high-heavy topspin.
Tactics hinge on time: Tiafoe must shorten points with serve-plus-one aggression, while Arnaldi will look to drag rallies wide and test the American’s patience. Given Arnaldi’s recent giant-killing form and superior clay résumé, the edge tilts slightly toward the Italian.
Tiafoe v Arnaldi Tip: Arnaldi to win: 8/11
Grigor Dimitrov v Gabriel Diallo
This is a first-time meeting between Grigor Dimitrov and Canada’s 6 ft 8 in Gabriel Diallo.
The styles could hardly contrast more.
Dimitrov, now 33, embraces variety. His nimble footwork, biting slice and explosive one-handed backhand shine on altitude clay, where the quicker conditions reward his server-volley forays.
The Bulgarian arrived in Madrid fresh from a quarterfinal showing in Monte-Carlo and is 5-1 on clay this season, having dismissed Nicolas Jarry and Jack Fearnley in straight sets to reach the last 16.
Diallo, making his Masters-1000 main-draw debut, rides a booming first serve and flat forehand. Clay is still a learning curve—he had only four tour-level wins on the surface before this week—but the Canadian has scraped through two deciding-set cliff-hangers against Kamil Machjrzak and Cameron Norrie, lifting his 2025 clay mark to four wins.
The high bounce in Madrid aids his kicking second serve but can expose the tall man’s movement into corners.
Tactics appear straightforward: Dimitrov will mix pace, drop shots and net rushes to pull Diallo off balance; the Canadian must dictate with first-strike power and keep points short. Given Dimitrov’s clay pedigree and greater versatility, experience should edge raw firepower.
Dimitrov v Diallo Tip: Dimitrov to win in straight sets: 1/1
