The 2025 WTA Madrid Open semifinals will be played on Thursday, May 1 with Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka take to court here. You can get the best predictions and tips for the day from this tournament here.
Iga Swiatek v Coco Gauff
There have been 14 tour meetings between these two and Świątek leads 11-3.
Gauff stunned the Pole at the United Cup after having overcome her at the WTA Finals as well late last year. On clay, however, the score is 5-0 to Świątek, including last year’s Roland-Garros semi-final.
Madrid’s springy, altitude clay magnifies Świątek’s heavy topspin forehand and kick serve, both of which jump above Gauff’s strike-zone. The American counters with elite court coverage and a biting backhand return, yet her forehand can fly on quicker dirt if rushed.
Świątek boasts around 90% career win rate on clay and is 5-1 on the surface in 2025, after winning four in a row this week. This includes a comeback-from-a-bagel win over Madison Keys last round.
Gauff owns a respectable record on and is 5-1 too for this season, highlighted by four successive wins at this tournament in straight sets including one over Mirra Andreeva last round.
For Gauff to flip the rivalry on clay, she will need to do a lot more than she has so far but given how Swiatek hasn’t quite been herself she might have a chance.
Swiatek v Gauff Tip: Gauff to win a set – Yes: 4/6
Aryna Sabalenka v Elina Svitolina
Sabalenka leads their rivalry 4-1, with clay wins (Rome 2024, Roland Garros 2023) and Svitolina’s lone success coming in 2020 Strasbourg. Now they meet on the Caja Mágica’s altitude clay, a court that exaggerates both Sabalenka’s first-strike power and Svitolina’s counter-punching skills.
Sabalenka’s game is purpose-built for Madrid: a 185 km/h first-serve and flat forehand that skid through the quick dirt.
Since an April runner-up finish in Stuttgart, the world No 2 has rattled off four wins here including one in two-tiebreaks against Marta Kostyuk to reach the semifinals. She is 6-1 on clay in 2025 and owns 22 career victories in Madrid and has won 15 of her last 16 matches at this tournament.
Svitolina has been flawless on the surface this spring. Since bowing out of the Miami Open, the Ukrainian registered two Billie Jean King Cup wins, captured the Rouen clay title without losing a set, and arrives on a 9-0 clay streak after ousting Moyuka Uchijima in her previous round.
Her elastic movement and heavy topspin forehand thrive in long rallies, though Madrid’s bounce also hands Sabalenka extra pace on return.
For Svitolina to flip the script she needs some excellent first-serves going in and to stretch exchanges into the backhand corner; otherwise Sabalenka’s serve-plus-forehand pattern should dictate as it has all week.
Sabalenka v Svitolina Tip: Over 20.5 games in the match: 5/6
