The semifinals 2025 ATP Rome Masters will be played on Friday, May 16 as Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz take to court. You can get the best predictions and tips for the day from this tournament here.
Jannik Sinner v Tommy Paul
Jannik Sinner holds a 3–1 edge over Tommy Paul in their ATP meetings. Their only clay clash was in Madrid 2022, where Sinner prevailed in three tight sets 6-7 (4), 7-6 (4), 6-3. Paul’s lone victory arrived on grass at Eastbourne 2022.
Sinner is the archetypal aggressive baseliner. His two-handed backhand generates more topspin than any other ATP player and ranks fifth in average speed.
He couples that with a heavy, early-strike forehand and exceptional court coverage—attributes honed through his background in skiing—that allow him to blur the line between offense and defense.
Paul, by contrast, relies on a flat, first-strike game. He possesses a strong attacking forehand and a compact two-handed backhand, underpinned by solid footwork and an ability to finish points at the net. His preference for taking the ball early and his willingness to transition forward make him unusually potent on clay for an American.
On red dirt this season, Sinner is a perfect 4–0, extending his unbeaten clay run to begin 2025, and boasts a solid overall record on clay.
Paul arrives with an 8–2 clay ledger in 2025 that includes wins over Alex de Minaur and Hubert Hurkacz in Rome’s earlier rounds.
Sinner is 11–0 on tour this year, fresh off a commanding straight-sets quarter-final win over Casper Ruud, having yet to drop a set in Rome. Paul sits at 21–7, riding confidence from semifinal runs on clay in Houston and strong showings in Madrid and Rome.
Tactically, Sinner will look to overpower Paul with heavy groundstrokes and depth, denying him angles to deploy his net-rushing game. Paul must leverage his flat strokes and early ball-striking to rob Sinner of rhythm, mixing in approaches to keep the Italian off balance.
In a clash of raw power versus tactical variety, Sinner’s superior consistency and recent form make him a strong favorite.
Sinner v Paul Tip: Sinner to win in straight sets: 1/3
Carlos Alcaraz v Lorenzo Musetti
Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti have met six times on tour, with Alcaraz firmly in control at 5–1 overall.
On clay specifically, the Spaniard leads 3–1, his sole loss coming in the 2022 Hamburg European Open final when Musetti edged him out.
Their most recent encounter was in the Monte-Carlo Masters final last month, where Alcaraz edged Musetti in three tight sets to claim the title.
Alcaraz’s game thrives on aggressive shot-making from the baseline. He pairs a powerful first serve with heavy forehands that kick up high on clay, forcing opponents deep behind the baseline.
His two-handed backhand has also evolved into a go-to weapon, capable of reversing defense into offense in a single swing. His willingness to approach the net keeps rivals honest and rounds out an all-court arsenal.
Musetti counters with a flamboyant one-handed backhand and a variety-first approach. He mixes flat drives with well-disguised drop shots, slices and volleys, testing opponents’ movement and patience.
His serve arsenal—ranging from flat to heavy kick deliveries—has matured, though he still thrives most on slower surfaces that reward his tactical versatility.
On clay, Alcaraz boasts an outstanding career record having won the French Open title last year and coming off a Monte-Carlos Masters victory last month.
Musetti does well on clay too and his 20–6 record for 2025 is punctuated with a 14–2 record on clay, with his run to the Monte-Carlo final and a semi at Madrid pushing him into the world top 10.
In 2025, Alcaraz is 28–5 for the season and 13–1 on clay, highlighted by titles in Monte-Carlo and finals in Barcelona. He most recently dispatched Jack Draper 6–4, 6–4 in Rome to reach his fourth semi-final in five ATP 1000 events this year.
Tactically, Alcaraz will look to dictate play with his heavy groundstrokes and aggressive court positioning, aiming to keep the Italian on the defensive.
Musetti’s best chance lies in extending rallies, deploying his drop shots and slicing backhands to disrupt Alcaraz’s rhythm and exploit occasional impatience. Expect a high-tempo affair where margins will be razor-thin.
Paul v Hurkacz Tip: Alcaraz to win in straight sets: 5/6
