The first round action at the ATP Hong Kong Open 2025 will be played on Tuesday, December 31. Here’s the preview, predictions and tips for these matches from Hong Kong.
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Denis Shapovalov v Kei Nishikori Preview
Head-to-Head: World number 56 Denis Shapovalov and the 106th-ranked Kei Nishikori have faced off twice, both of which came in hardcourt tournaments in 2018 – Washington and Acapulco – and both players won one apiece.
Having missed the entire 2022 season because of fitness concerns, Nishikori came back in 2023 and finished the season 352nd in the world. In 2024, he was forced to feature at the lower level and even won a Challenger competition.
In doing so, Nishikori ended the season 106th and his next goal-post would be to break into the top 100 and then do better as he looks to start qualifying for Grand Slams and ATP 1000 events without having to rely on wildcards or having to go through the qualifiers.
Nishikori will face a tough challenge in his opener as he takes on Shapovalov who showed signs of resurrection in 2024. Once ranked 10th in the world, the Canadian had seen his ranking tumble but he looks to have arrested that bleeding.
Shapovalov enters this competition on the back of having won his first ever ATP title in five years with his Belgrade Open tournament victory. Expect a tight battle here.
Shapovalov v Nishikori prediction: Three sets in the match: 6/5
Jaume Munar v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Preview
Head-to-Head: They have never featured in a face-off at the highest level but there have been three previous clay court matches in Challengers tournaments with Fokina leading 2-1.
What’s interesting to note is that Fokina and Munar are within a rank of each other on the ATP charts – 61st and 62nd respectively.
Munar, however, isn’t much of a hardcourt player and his overall record on that surface reads an abysmal 81-98 across all levels of tennis.
Which is why it’s not much of a surprise that his opponent here, Fokina starts off a favourite with bookmakers offering 2/5 for his victory. He did fall out of the top 50 in 2024 and was forced to withdraw from the Paris Masters following the qualifiers because of fitness issues but all that seems to be behind him.
Fokina should not have a lot of problem on hardcourt against Munar given his far superior record on this surface.
Munar v Fokina prediction: Munar to win: 2/5
Nuno Borges v Y Bu Preview
Head-to-Head: While they have never played each other at the highest level, the 36th-ranked Borges holds a 2-0 win-loss record against Bu on the Challengers circuit. Both those matches came in 2023,
While in 2023, Bu was still 171st in the world, he has shown remarkable progress in 2024 as he has run away to solid performances even at the highest level.
And he polished that off with a semifinal appearance at the China Open and another quarterfinal in Metz towards the end of the season.
As a result he starts off the season ranked 65th, his career-best and it would be interesting to see how he follows things up in 2025.
Up against him is Borges who is ranked 36th in the world but is coming into this with a four-match losing streak under his belt to end the previous year. Add to that the fact that Borges is more renowned for his clay court play, we would be backing Bu for a win here.
Borges v Bu prediction: Bu to win: 17/20
Pedro Martinez v Francesco Passaro Preview
Head-to-Head: There have been three meetings overall between these two players, of which one has come in the main draw of the Santiago Open in 2024. Martinez had won that on clay but lost a qualifier at the Australian Open 2024 to the same opponent.
Martinez might be ranked 43rd in the world to his opponent’s 108th but the surface that they are playing on does even things out given how both struggle in hardcourt competitions.
Where Passaro holds a slight edge is he is coming off two wins in the qualifiers, giving him a better rhythm, some momentum and some match practice coming into this one as opposed to his opponent who last played competitively in November.
Backing Passaro for a win in three.
Martinez v Passaro prediction: Three sets in the match: 6/5
Other Hong Kong Open 2025 Predictions of the Day
- Zizou Bergs v Alejandro Moro Canas: Bergs to win: 4/9
- Alexandre Muller v Marc-Andrea Huesler: Three sets in the match
- Juncheng Shang v Coleman Wong: Shang to win: 3/10
- Roberto Carballes Baena v Gabriel Diallo: Diallo to win: 1/2
