Sebastian Baez leads the first round action at the Buenos Aires Open 2025 which will be played on Tuesday, February 11. Here’s the preview, predictions and tips for these matches from the Argentina Open.
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Sebastian Baez v Camilo Ugo Carabelli Preview
Head-to-Head: All five of their previous meetings have come at the lower levels – four in the Futures and one on the Challenger circuit. All were played on clay and Baez leads 3-2 with their last meeting in 2021.
A quarterfinalist at the Argentina Open last year, Sebastian Baez returns to his home tournament in a bid to add to his five career ATP titles. It’s actually a surprise that for someone who has won four of his titles at this level on clay, he has never gone beyond the last eight stage.
And by the looks of things, Baez seems to be preparing hard for this, foregoing the rest of the hardcourt swing after his Australian Open exit and focussing on clay. He participated in a Challenger tournament in Rosario last week to do that, making the semifinal there.
He has a relatively straightforward opening round match against fellow Argentine, Camilo Ugo Carabelli who is ranked 87th in the world at the moment. The one caveat to note here is he is a much-improved player and has moved from being 146th in the world at the start of 2024 to his career-best at the moment.
Carabelli featured in the Australian Open as his only hardcourt competition, got knocked out in the first round before taking part in the two Challengers on clay.
The second of those, at Rosario is the same one that Baez played in and Carabelli did even better that him, making the final there and beating Hugo Dellien.
Baez v Carabelli prediction: Baez to win in three sets: 7/2
Hugo Gaston v Federico Coria Preview
Head-to-Head: Gaston and Coria have never faced off before.
Hugo Gaston has had a forgettable start to the season with the Frenchman falling to three defeats from four matches. The only win for Gaston came in his Australian Open opener against Omar Jasika before he retired from the second round against Jiri Lehecka.
He hasn’t played any competitive tennis since and will be itching to return to clay on which he has had some of his best results. This includes three of his four Challenger titles as well.
It won’t be easy though because first up against him is the clay-court specialist Federico Coria who enters the tournament as a lucky loser.
Coria, who was a semifinalist here last year, lost to Laslo Djere in the qualifiers but has made it through because of a few top players withdrawing from this. He has also been playing in a lot of clay court matches following his only encounter at the Australian Open where he was snuffed out in the opener.
Since then, Coria has featured in three Challenger events in South America and will be a lot sharper than Gaston as far as clay court events go.
Gaston v Coria prediction: Coria to win: 4/6
Juan Manuel Cerundolo v Roman Andres Burruchaga Preview
Head-to-Head: Their only previous meeting came on the Challenger circuit in 2023 and Burruchaga had won in straight sets.
This battle between the 139th-ranked Juan Manuel Cerundolo and the world number 141 Roman Andres Burruchaga could turn out to be a quite ripper as the two clay-court specialists hunt for an elusive main draw win at this level.
In his fifth appearance at this tournament, Cerundolo has made the main draw here once but never gone past that.
His opponent, Burruchaga, on the other hand, was knocked out of the qualifiers here last year but has done one better this time around with wins over Gustavo Heide and Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves.
Burruchaga has also pocketed a Challenger title earlier this month and as far as confidence goes, he will be full of it. We think this will be a good chance for him to grab the win.
Cerundolo v Burruchaga prediction: Burruchaga to win: 4/5
Damir Dzumhur v Pedro Martinez Preview
Head-to-Head: This will be the first meeting between Dzumhur and Martinez.
While it’s no surprise that Pedro Martinez starts off a 2/5 favourite against Damir Dzumhur who is ranked about 50 places behind him, one needs to make a quick consideration about the fact that he is coming off playing hardcourt competitions till the previous week.
Martinez had in fact made it to the quarterfinals of the indoor hardcourt tournament in Rotterdam before falling to Carlos Alcaraz and he will now need to make a switch to clay.
His opponent, Dzumhur has featured in one clay court Challenger in Rosario where he made second round. While that doesn’t quite give him a huge edge, it could allow him to stay in this encounter for a bit longer.
Dzumhur v Martinez prediction: Over 20.5 games in the match: 4/5
