Argentines, 31st-ranked Sebastian Baez and the world number 91 Ugo Carabelli will go face to face in the first round of the 2025 Rio Open which will be played on Saturday, February 22. Get all the Sebastian Baez v Ugo Carabelli predictions, betting tips and odds for this encounter in the section below.
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Sebastian Baez v Ugo Carabelli Head to Head
While they have played multiple times on the Futures circuit and once in a Challenger tournament, their only meeting at the highest level came last week at the Argentina Open where Baez had won their first round encounter.
Baez Eases Past Tseng
Having made a slow start to the season with two opening losses in the first two tournaments he played in 2025, Sebastian Baez looks to have come into his own in Rio here.
Baez, who had defeated Roman Andres Burruchaga and Mariano Navone in the first two rounds of the competition, did not face too many issues against Chun Hsin Tseng in his quarterfinals.
In a match lasting a mere hour and 36 minutes, Baez beat Tseng 6-4, 6-1 to reach the semifinals, his first since the Hamburg Open last year.
The Argentine lost his serve twice, both of which came in the first set including once when he served for the set at 5-3. While Baez failed to do that, he broke Tseng in the very next game to scoop up the set and then broke his opponent two more times to grab the match.
This follows a second round exit at the Argentina Open last week.
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Carabelli Wins the Battle of Lucky Losers
Having entered this tournament without having ever won successive matches in an ATP tournament, Ugo Carabelli went one better by defeating Jaime Faria in the quarterfinals and notching up his third win.
Having lost to Marcelo Barrios Vera in the qualifiers and then qualified as a lucky loser, Carabelli had registered wins over Pedro Martinez and Damir Dzumhur to make the quarterfinals.
And while Faria put up a fight in their encounter and pushed it to nearly two hours of tennis, Carabelli came through in straight sets, winning 7-6 (5), 6-4.
It was Faria who drew the first blood when he broke his opponent at 3-3 but that would also be the last time Carabelli would drop his serve in the entire match. He broke right back and then edged past Faria in the tie-breaker, having missed two set-points.
The second set was slightly better for Carabelli who did not give any breaking opportunities to his opponent while missing five of his own. He took the sixth one and then served out the match to set up a semifinal meeting with his Argentine compatriot.
Baez v Carabelli Prediction
Baez has a good chance to make the final here with a hard-fought but straight-set win expected.
Baez v Carabelli Tips
- Baez to win: 2/5
- Baez to win in straight sets: 6/5
