One of the most vital aspect in tennis betting are the odds associated with the market you are betting on and understanding the factors that could affect these odds could go a long way in helping you take the right decision before placing your bet.
If you are new to tennis betting and would like to know more about the various formats of betting odds, you can refer to our exhaustive article here.
And before you even get down to the factors affecting tennis betting odds, it’s important to understand how they move and what it could mean for your bet.
Once you have had a fair idea about this, we can move towards understanding what are the reasons behind these changing tennis odds. Because once you know this, it will help you make better bets on tennis matches and tournaments, and in turn play a part in making it a profitable journey for you.
Here’s an exhaustive list of factors that can affect tennis betting odds, i.e. make odds shorten or lengthen:
Factors Affecting Tennis Betting Odds
Player Form
This is an obvious one with player form playing a huge part in deciding the odds associated with that betting market. Better the form in the lead-up to the match, shorter the winning odds for that player and vice versa.
What’s more important to note here is that odds could work differently in men’s and women’s tennis.
This is because players on the women’s tennis tour have begun to show a smaller variance and that has meant that bookmakers have shown a propensity to offer lower parity in those odds. This is particularly true in matches between players outside the top five.
On the other hand, men’s tennis has lesser chances of upsets as compared to women’s tennis and that means the odds on offer are managed differently even when a player is in form.
Head-to-Head Record
An in-form player would start at way shorter odds than one out of form but things could change if he/she is pitted against another player who has done well against him/her.
The historical performance between two players can affect the odds. If one player has a dominant record against the other, it may lead to lower odds for the favored player.
Take the example of Iga Swiatek, who has arguably been the best women’s tennis player since Serena Williams. She has a sterling record against most top 10 players and at the time of writing leads Aryna Sabalenka 7-2, is 9-1 against Cori Gauff, 5-2 against Ons Jabeur and 4-0 against Marketa Vondrousova.
However, against Elena Rybakina, Swiatek has a losing record, having won just one of their first four matches.
Which is why, while Swiatek typically has gone into matches against Sabalenka, Gauff, Jabeur and Vondrousova at 1/3 (1.33) or shorter odds to win, she was 11/20 (1.55) entering the 2024 Qatar Open final against Rybakina.
Surface Suitability
Tennis is one of those unique sports which are played on different surfaces.
At one stage, carpet was also used in men’s and women’s tennis but currently it has lost favour. Even without that though, tennis is played on grass, grass, clay, outdoor hardcourt and indoor hardcourt surfaces.
And there’s a slight difference even there, with different colours of clay in use including red, green and as was the case in one of the editions of the Madrid Open, even blue.
Different surfaces behave differently. Some are quicker in nature, some make for uneven bounce while there’re some which allow players to slide more easily.
What this means is that depending on a player’s playing style, we could be looking at the same set of players entering into a match with different odds associated with them across different surfaces.
Even if we don’t consider the freak record that Nadal has on clay, it’s worth remembering there are clay-court specialists, hardcourt specialists and even some who do exceedingly well on grass despite the surface not being in use for more than three weeks every season.
Injury Status
Injuries, fitness and health concerns are part and parcel of all sports but they cause major odds fluctuations in an individual sport like tennis. Injured players in a team sport can be replaced and more than not it doesn’t impact a team’s chances a lot.
On the other hand, in an individual sport like tennis, it could turn things around dramatically.
A tennis player nursing an injury, or someone who might be returning to the sport after a bit of a fitness-related layoff may have higher odds compared to a fully fit opponent.
Rest and Fatigue
The amount of rest a player has had between matches or tournaments can influence their performance and, consequently, the odds.
This is specially the case in this day and age when players, especially those ranked outside the top 20, have to feature in tournaments in successive weeks at times.
A player who has won a tournament one week, might not get a lot of time off before the start of the next tournament the following week. By the time he/she has reached the second or the third round of the next week’s competition, the player might have played six-seven matches over 8-9 days, making it very difficult to sustain the same level of play.
Quite a lot of the players feature in back to back tournaments, like is the case with the Indian Wells Open and Miami Open, two ATP and WTA 1000 competitions played across four weeks.
A player winning both these tournaments in the same season is said to have won the Sunshine Double, and not too many have done this. The reason? The gruelling nature of play without a lot of rest and immense fatigue as a result.
Tournament Importance
The significance of the tournament to the players can affect their motivation and performance, thus influencing the odds.
Some of the top players in the world are paid an appearance fee over and above the prize money to feature in the smaller, ATP and WTA 250 tournaments.
With not a lot of points on offer in these less important tournaments (especially for the top players), it could reduce the motivation levels and allow the less favourite opponents to start off with shorter odds than otherwise.
Weather Conditions
Outdoor tournaments can be affected by weather conditions such as wind, rain, or extreme heat, which may favor certain playing styles or affect players’ performance levels.
Top players adapt quicker to changing temperatures and weather and that’s something one needs to keep in mind while betting on matches that could be affected by the elements of nature.
Take the example of the 2020 French Open, which was played in fall as opposed to its typical spring time because of the pandemic-related disruptions.
It wasn’t just the crisp cold that the body was forced to adapt to but players also needed to adjust to the “ball that feels like a rock coming off their strings”.
Player Rankings
Higher-ranked players usually have lower odds compared to lower-ranked opponents. However, upsets can occur, leading to odds adjustments. As mentioned above, however, a higher-ranked player might not be very fond of the surface in question and could even fall prey to a way lower-ranked player.
Pete Sampras on clay was one such example.
He was the sixth seed at the French Open in 1991 and lost in the second round. Second seed in the 1995 edition but fell in the first. The top seed in 1997 at the same tournament but managed just a third round place. A second round ouster in the 1998 and 1999 edition, second round in 2000 and 2001 and first round in 2002 despite starting out as one of the top 10 seeded players in each of them.
So while the players rankings or seeds could help deciding the odds, a lot of other factors needed to be accounted in.
Betting Volume
In tennis betting, betting volume is defined as the total amount of money bet on a particular match or event.
It represents the collective sum of all the bets placed by bettors on various outcomes, such as the winner of the match, the total number of games played, or specific set scores.
Why is betting volume important is because it allows bookmakers to adjust the odds in real-time based on the flow of money, ensuring that they can balance their books and minimize potential losses.
Bookmakers set their initial odds for a particular tennis market based on what their algorithm assesses the probability for the various outcomes possible. Then as the bets start pouring in, a noticeable interest in one or the other outcome – in the form of excessive bets – could make the bookmaker to change the odds to minimise losses.
In turn, this also allows tennis bettors to use betting volume as an indicator of market sentiment or to identify potential value bets.
Public Perception
Bookmakers could also change the odds based on the hype around a player (or doubles team) based on the media coverage and public opinion. This could be more so the case in high-profile matches.
Coaching Changes
Changes in coaching staff or strategies can sometimes affect a player’s performance and, consequently, the odds. There have been countless examples of how a change in coaches has made a drastic difference to a player’s form.
In more recent times this has been a more prominent case in women’s tennis with Cori Gauff going on a bit of a victory run under Brad Gilbert, Maria Sakkari shrugging off poor form and reaching the final of the 2024 Indian Wells under new coach David Witt and Emma Raducanu falling in form and rankings after sacking Andrew Richardson following her US Open title victory.
Holger Rune has also had a tough ride once his partnership with Patrick Mouratoglou ended and all of these examples might reflect a wee bit on the odds as well when a player with a new coaching staff enters a match or a tournament.
Mental Toughness
The mental strength and resilience of players, especially in high-pressure situations, can impact their performance and odds.
Mental toughness isn’t something that can be directly measured but players who have the wherewithal to come back from being a set down in a bet-of-three match or two sets down from a best-of-five encounter and win the match can be spoken about as being mentally tough.
Novak Djokovic is said to be one of the best in the business when it comes to mental toughness and that’s why the odds might not fluctuate as much against him as they could if someone else had gone two sets down in a Grand Slam match.
Rafael Nadal, on clay, is no different. So is Serena Williams. Simona Halep. Elena Rybakina. Steffi Graf. And so on.
On the other hand, you could also look at players who have lost the most matches from being one or two sets up to check for their lack of mental wherewithal. Betting odds take this into account as well.
Player Age and Experience
Younger players or those with less experience may have higher odds compared to seasoned veterans, although this can vary depending on other factors.
In my experience of having watched and bet on tennis, players reach a peak playing at which their experience counts for a lot more than someone who is just starting out. Beyond this, the diminishing physical and mental aspects account for much more than anything that experience can add.
This could be different for different players though.
Playing Style Matchup
Certain playing styles may match up better against others, leading to shifts in odds based on the perceived advantage in the matchup.
Take the example of Adrian Mannarino, who has five ATP titles to his name and coming into the 2024 season had lost all 27 of his matches against Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer. And yet, against a player like Daniil Medvedev, he had a 4-3 win-loss record.
It’s Mannarino’s playing style that makes it so much more difficult for Medvedev and even more so on a surface like grass.
Bookmaker Adjustments
Bookmakers continuously adjust odds based on incoming information, market trends, and other factors to ensure balanced betting and mitigate their own risks. Some of it is information that might not be common knowledge for the tennis bettor.
Final Word on Factors Affecting Tennis Odds Movement
There are multiple factors affecting the movement of tennis odds and it’s very important to understand these why. In turn that understanding helps tennis bettors strategise better on how to earn more profits over time!
If you are looking to understand these strategies in greater detail, click here for our exhaustive guide that explains the same.
Photo Credit: Gonzalo Mendiola
