Are you new to betting on tennis or have had some experience on it but need to now look at the theoretical aspect of tennis betting? We have this exhaustive tennis betting guide in which we cover everything there is to know about betting on this hallowed sport.
It is a long read sure, but if you are looking for something around tennis punting, you can look at the table of content below and directly skip to that section.
We have also dedicated longer articles on each of the important sections below, so if you want a better understanding of that, we would suggest you click on those articles and read and understand those in conjunction with what’s mentioned below.
So here goes, an exhaustive, long-form guide on betting on tennis.
Introduction to Tennis Betting
Tennis, a sport characterized by its grace, power, and strategic gameplay, has captivated audiences worldwide for centuries. In more recent times, the emergence of sports medicine and better fitness has allowed players to reach the levels of Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Serena Williams and the likes, thereby making it an even more watchable sport in its long history.
Beyond the thrill of the game itself lies a vibrant ecosystem of tennis betting, where enthusiasts engage in predicting match outcomes, analyzing player performances, and seeking value in the diverse array of betting markets available.
In this section, we embark on an introductory journey into the realm of tennis betting, exploring its allure, evolution, and fundamental principles.
The Attraction of Tennis Betting
Why is there so much demand for tennis betting?
Tennis betting, like its counterparts in the world of sports betting, holds a distinct appeal for enthusiasts and punters alike.
For starters, the individual nature of tennis, with its one-on-one matchups and high-stakes encounters, offers a unique canvas for betting excitement. It also makes it that much easier to analyse as compared to a team sport in which multiple parts of a wheel need to work in unison for things to come right for you.
From Grand Slam tournaments to ATP and WTA Tour events and even lower level tournaments like the Challengers and the WTA 125 and ITF competitions, each match presents a tapestry of drama, skill, and unpredictability, inviting spectators to immerse themselves in the ebb and flow of the game through the lens of betting.
This makes it a much preferred option for those interested in the world of sports betting. Even more so who are looking to make a career out of tennis betting.
History and Evolution of Tennis Betting
The roots of tennis betting trace back to the origins of the sport itself, intertwining with the rich and glorious history of the sport itself.
As tennis gained prominence and professionalized over the centuries, so too did the practice of betting on tennis matches. From informal wagers among spectators to the emergence of organized betting markets, the landscape of tennis betting has evolved in tandem with the growth and globalization of the sport.
In recent decades, the advent of online betting platforms has revolutionized the accessibility and popularity of tennis betting, enabling fans from around the world to engage with matches in real-time, from the comfort of their homes or on the go.
With a few clicks of a button, enthusiasts can navigate a labyrinth of betting markets, from traditional match-winner bets to more nuanced propositions, amplifying the excitement and engagement surrounding each contest.
What’s made things even more attractive for tennis punters is live betting in which one can bet on each and every point unlike pre-match betting that was the norm in earlier years.
Popularity and Growth of Tennis Betting
The popularity of tennis betting continues to soar, fueled by a convergence of factors that have propelled the sport into the global spotlight.
The proliferation of televised coverage, coupled with the proliferation of social media and digital streaming platforms, has brought tennis to a wider audience than ever before, igniting passion and interest in the game among fans and bettors alike.
Bookmakers offering free live tennis streams has become a norm and that has ensured punters get an added edge as they look to take every single advantage on offer.
Moreover, the expanding landscape of tennis betting has ushered in a new era of innovation and opportunity, with markets evolving to encompass a diverse array of options, including live betting, prop bets, and futures markets.
As technology continues to advance and betting platforms evolve, the possibilities for engagement and exploration within the world of tennis betting are boundless.
To give you a brief overview, the total sports betting in the world in 2023 was about $85 billion and tennis is among the top three most bet sports in the world out of that. You can imagine the kind of interest there is for tennis betting.
Understanding Tennis Odds
Now that we have an idea about how much interest that there is in tennis betting around the globe, we need to look at the odds associated with sports betting in general and tennis betting in particular.
If you have already bet on sports, you would have a fair understanding of this but for those only just starting out we look at what exactly do the tennis odds represent, the probability behind it, how to read these odds and the different formats associated with them.
Tennis odds serve as the numerical representation of the probability of various outcomes in a tennis match. Understanding how tennis odds work is essential for bettors to make informed decisions and calculate potential payouts.
Below you can find the breakdown of the basics behind this but if you want to understand it in some amount of depth, we have an exhaustive guide explaining tennis odds, its formats and how to use them.
Formats of Tennis Odds
Tennis odds can be presented in different formats, including fractional odds (e.g., 2/1), decimal odds (e.g., 3.00), and American odds (e.g., +200 or -150). The format used depends on the region and the betting platform.
Fractional odds represent the potential profit relative to the stake. For example, odds of 2/1 mean that for every $1 wagered, the potential profit is $2, plus the return of the original stake, resulting in a total payout of $3.
Decimal odds represent the total potential payout, including both the stake and profit. For example, odds of 3.00 mean that a $1 wager would result in a total payout of $3, including the original stake.
American odds can be either positive or negative. Positive odds (e.g., +200) indicate the potential profit on a $100 wager. Negative odds (e.g., -150) indicate the amount one needs to wager to win $100.
Understanding Favorite and Underdog
In a tennis match, one player is typically considered the favorite, while the other is the underdog. The favorite has lower odds, reflecting a higher probability of winning, while the underdog has higher odds, reflecting a lower probability of winning.
Let’s look at this with an example.
If we are using fractional odds in a match between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, and Nadal starts off 8/11 to win it as opposed to the 11/10 on offer for a Federer victory, it’s the Spaniard who starts off the bookmakers’ favourite.
Implied Probability
Tennis odds also imply the probability of a particular outcome occurring. To calculate the implied probability from decimal odds, divide 1 by the odds. For example, decimal odds of 2.00 imply a 50% chance of the outcome occurring.
In the example above, Federer starts off a 11/10 favourite to win it, which makes it 2.1 in decimal odds. The implied probability of his win is 1/2.1 = 47.6%. What this again means is that Nadal has a higher probability of winning the encounter (probably because it’s being played at Roland Garros ;))
Factors Affecting Tennis Odds
We have covered this in a separate article here where we look at the various factors influence tennis odds.
These include player rankings (both the men’s and women’s circuit have a ranking system in place for years), recent form, head-to-head records, surface preferences, injuries, and external variables such as weather conditions and tournament significance.
Line Movement
Tennis odds can fluctuate leading up to a match based on betting activity, injury news, and other relevant information. Understanding line movement and interpreting odds changes can provide insights into betting trends and market sentiment.
Read more about tennis betting odds movement and their implications here.
Comparing Odds Across Bookmakers
Different bookmakers may offer slightly different odds for the same tennis match. Comparing odds across multiple bookmakers allows bettors to find the best value and maximize potential returns.
For instance, bet365 might offer 8/11 for a Nadal win while he could well be 3/4 with 888Sport to win it. This implies that 888Sport are offering a slightly bigger payback for the same result (1.75 to 1.73).
Types of Tennis Bets (Tennis Betting Markets)
There are a few types of tennis betting markets which are not too different from other sports. So if you have made bets on other sports before this, you would be well-versed with some of them.
And then there are some which are different. These types of betting markets or tennis bet types are unique to tennis alone.
Here’s a list of the various tennis betting markets with a brief lowdown of this. We will also be going in-depth on this in another article but to give you a basic idea, here goes:
Moneyline/Match Winner Bets
This is a straightforward one. You can bet on the player (or team in doubles) whom you think will win the match.
So, in case of a match between Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev, if you pick Zverev to win at 2/1 odds and he goes on to win the encounter, you stand to gain two units of cash over and above the one unit you bet on it.
For 10 GBP bet on a Zverev win, you will earn 30 GBP back which includes your initial investment of 10 GBP.
Set Betting
In set betting in tennis, a punter is expected to predict the exact scoreline for the match in terms of the sets won by both players.
So in the same example as above, Djokovic is 2/5 to win the match against Zverev and is 11/10 to win it in straight sets and 3/1 to clinch it in three sets.
In case you put 10 GBP on a straight-set win for Djokovic and he wins it 6-3, 6-4, you stand to make 11 GBP back over and above the money you bet on this result.
Handicap Betting
In tennis, handicap betting is typically of two types – Games Handicap and Set Handicap. It is a wager on the player expected to win when considering a handicap assigned by the bookmaker.
What is a handicap in tennis betting? Well, it’s a method that evens things out between two players of unequal strength to allow the bet to make more sense.
Let’s assume Novak Djokovic is taking on the 156th-ranked Sumit Nagal in the first round of the Indian Wells Masters. No surprises that he will be a huge favourite to win it, even starting out 1/50 to beat Nagal.
However, in case of a Games Handicap, the bookmaker might allow shorter odds than that for Djokovic to win by a certain number of games.
So he could be 1/2 to overcome Nagal by a -5.5 games handicap, i.e. if the sum total of the games won by Djokovic are more than the sum total of the games won by Nagal by at least 6, the punter stands to gain 1/2 odds for it.
This is in sharp contrast to the 1/50 that Djokovic started out to win the encounter.
Over/Under Betting
This could be for the number of games in the match or the number of sets that might be played in the match.
So, in a best-of-three encounter, there could be two options for over/under set betting – Over 2.5 sets or Under 2.5 sets in the match. Typically Over 2.5 sets are longer odds unless the two players on show are pegged to be equals by the bookmakers.
In a Djokovic v Zverev match at the Miami Open, the odds for an over 2.5 sets would be 6/5 while for a match between Djokovic and Nagal it could be up to 2/1 because of the far lower probability of Nagal taking a set off the Serbian player.
Similarly, there could be over/under betting for the number of sets in a match.
With Iga Swiatek known to bagel her opponents, we could see an Under 17.5 games at 5/6 for a match between Swiatek and any of the players ranked outside the top 50.
However, if a player ranked 50th and 60th faced off, we could probably have a payout of 5/6 for Over 20.5 games in the encounter.
Other Betting Markets
The aforementioned tennis betting markets are the more famous ones. There are other such ones which aren’t as popular but are often looked at by punters too. They are:
- First Set/Second Set Winner: Betting on the player who will win the first set or second set of the match.
- Total Aces/Double-Faults: Betting on the total number of aces served or double-faults committed in a match, over or under a specific threshold.
- Tie Break in Match: Wagering on whether there will be a tiebreak in the match in a Yes or No bet.
- Total Points: Betting on the total number of points played in a match, over or under a specified amount.
- Both Players to Win a Set: Essentially a yes or no bet on whether both players will win a set or no.
- Tennis Tournament Betting: There are multiple markets on pre-tournament betting which include
You can read about the various tennis betting markets in more details in our in-depth guide here.
Live/In-Play Betting
Other than betting on tennis before the start of the match, you can also do that live during a tennis encounter.
Unlike traditional betting where wagers are placed before the event begins, live betting allows bettors to place bets as the game unfolds, reacting to the action and adjusting their strategies accordingly
This opens up a lot of avenues including betting on every point of a tennis match.
What’s also interesting to note is that some of these betting markets other than match winner/moneyline could also be used as a part of your strategy while betting on heavy favourites.
Factors Affecting Tennis Matches
Before getting into betting on tennis, punters need to understand the various factors which could influence your decisions around tennis betting.
These include the following aspects.
Player Rankings and Form
This is a n0-brainer and one’s betting journey needs to always begin with understanding how high is the player ranked on the ATP or WTA charts and what has been his or her form coming into that encounter.
While a player rank is a good place to begin, a tennis punter needs to be aware of the fact that rankings often don’t give the full picture. That’s because they don’t take into consideration the more recent form and another factor that’s mentioned below (the surface type).
Which is why it’s important to look at all these factors in conjunction while analysing your bet.
Surface Type (Hardcourt, Clay, Grass)
As mentioned earlier, a player ranked 10th could transition from the hardcourt swing to clay and suddenly play like one outside the top 50.
The biggest example of this in recent times has been Daniil Medvedev, who was once ranked first in the world. The same season he became the number one player – in 2022 – he played just five matches on clay and won only three of them because of his aversion to the surface.
There’s another instance of Austria’s Tomas Muster becoming a number one in the world thanks to his performances on clay which included a French Open title. That was one of 40 tournament victories for Muster on clay while he clinched just four on other surfaces.
There are numerous such examples of players being good on one surface and falling apart drastically on another and it’s necessary to research on those lines.
Head-to-Head Records
Even if a player has a solid record on a particular surface, he or she might come up against an opponent who has had a wood on him/her. A bugbear of sorts.
Take the example of the mighty Roger Federer, who won 20 Grand Slam titles and not too many, other than Rafael Nadal (on clay) and Novak Djokovic managed to challenge him.
And yet, at the time of his retirement, he had managed to win just two of the seven matches he played against Dominic Thiem.
Let’s also look at the reverse of this. NovakDjokovic has a 100% win record against multiple players but it becomes bizarrely good against Gael Monfils, whom he has beaten 19 times in a row!
Player Injuries and Fatigue
Many a times, players enter a tournament to give it a shot despite being injured. Those are difficult to spot obviously but it’s best to do one’s research and look for any such fitness issues.
The other aspect to consider is fatigue from playing a lot of matches without any break.
Tournaments are scheduled on a weekly basis and not too many players end up with titles in successive weeks for the same reason. In fact, a few of the players featuring in tournaments in the week just prior to a Grand Slam, withdraw from their semifinal or final to avoid fatigue heading into the major.
Weather Conditions
Rains, wind, humidity, heat – all of these elements have a bearing on player performances.
Heat and humidity tests the fitness and resolve of players, rains make clay courts heavier and slower while wind causes serving struggles for players.
In an interesting example, the 2020 French Open was shifted to September because of the pandemic and the weather in Paris was so cold that it made champion tennis star Rafael Nadal voice his concerns about the same.
Tennis Betting Strategies
Research and Analysis Techniques
This is one of the most important strategies associated with betting in tennis. If you are just starting out, it is necessary you look to study player performances of those involved in the match you are betting on.
Among the aspects to consider are recent form, head-to-head records, and other relevant statistics to make informed betting decisions.
Bankroll Management
Another important factor while starting out in tennis betting but not oft-spoken.
Bankroll management is the strategy that allows punter a pre-set amount of money wagered on each tennis bet to ensure long-term sustainability and minimize losses.
Value Betting and Finding Value in Odds
As you get more used to following tennis and betting on this sport, you will get a master at identifying discrepancies between bookmakers’ odds and the actual probability of an outcome.
This will allow you to capitalize on favorable betting opportunities.
Read more about how shifting tennis odds could become a part of your betting strategy here.
Hedging and Arbitrage opportunities
Sometimes, different bookmakers offer different odds for the same markets, allowing a guaranteed profit regardless of the match outcome or minimizing potential losses.
This is a strategy tennis punters use and to be able to do so, one needs to be signed up with as many bookmakers as possible.
Following Trends and Patterns
Tennis punters can understand a lot from observing recurring trends or patterns in player performances, match outcomes, or tournament conditions to help make better betting decisions.
Sometimes one cannot explain one’s instinct but it is a sum of all the information one has understood from having followed player and tournament trends and patters.
In-Game Momentum and Swings
Live betting is becoming more and more famous and in order to ace it – no puns intended! – it makes sense to monitor shifts in momentum during a match.
Player confidence, form, or energy levels can fluctuate regularly during an encounter and this could give you an opportunity especially if the bookmaker hasn’t caught on to it.
Player Styles and Matchups
Analyzing players’ playing styles, strengths, weaknesses, and how they match up against each other to predict match outcomes more accurately.
Player Mental Toughness
Considering players’ psychological resilience, ability to handle pressure situations, and perform consistently under stress, which can influence match outcomes and betting strategies.
Novak Djokovic, for instance, is one of the most mentally tough sportsperson, let alone tennis star. He has won a few Grand Slam matches from being two sets down but it’s rare to find him go two sets down anyway.
Roger Federer is one of those too, having clinched 10 matches from behind down two sets while Andy Murray has 11 such wins.
Accumulator Betting
One of the aspects of betting in general and tennis betting in particular is accumulator betting using which a punter can combine two or more bets together to earn greater odds than individually placing bets on each outcome.
While this is quite an exciting strategy to use and also offers greater rewards, it comes with its own set of risks because even one wrong outcome in an accumulator bet consisting of, say four such outcomes, could lead to a loss of bet.
Read more about how a tennis betting accumulator operates here.
Understanding Tennis Tournaments
Tournament Overview
As a part of understanding how to bet on tennis, it’s important to know what the tennis schedule and the format for the sport looks like.
The tennis circuit is divided into the ATP and the WTA circuit, for men’s and women’s tennis respectively with a few of the tournaments open for both.
At the top rung of this are the Grand Slams, which award the winner 2000 points. Year-ending tournaments, the ATP Finals and the WTA Finals award 1500 to the winners (if he/she wins all the matches).
The ATP 1000 and WTA 1000 competitions are worth 1000 points for the winner while there other tournaments for 500 and 250 points too for the player clinching the title.
Other than this, there are competitions at the Challenger and WTA 125 level and a notch lower on the ITF circuit as well which allows players ranked outside the top 100 and even the top 500 or top 1000 to compete and earn ranking points.
There are a few other team tournaments with the Laver Cup following the format of golf’s Ryder Cup with Team World taking on Team Europe. Davis Cup is an age-old country versus country competition in men’s tennis while the Fed Cup constitutes the same for women.
More recently a tournament by the name of United Cup was started as a joint collaboration between the ATP and WTA circuits. While it retains the country v country flavour, it also incentivises players to participate in it by awarding ranking points for each match won.
You can find all the information on the ongoing season’s tennis calendar here. It is a list of all the ATP, WTA and Grand Slam level tournaments or the year.
Surface Overview
Tennis is a unique sport in that it’s played on different surfaces.
There are three main surfaces – hardcourt, clay court and grass court – and each of these play differently. Every surface has a set of players who do well on them while not doing as well on another surface.
Tournaments are also played outdoor or indoor, with indoor hardcourt surfaces being used for quite a few of the competitions. They are typically the fastest lot.
At one point, carpet was also used as a surface but it no longer is in use other than on the rare occasion at the lower levels of tennis. Read here to understand why carpet is no longer in operation in tennis.
Tennis Betting Tips and Advice
Importance of Staying Updated with News & Developments
Modern tennis is ever-evolving with newer rules and formats taking birth every now and then. And not just that, it’s important to know what’s happening on the tennis circuits on a regular basis to get a heads up for your tennis betting journey.
Not too many tennis fans, for instance, understand what is the hindrance rule in tennis. Or even what’s a let and how is it different from a fault.
Similarly, it’s important to know why a player has withdrawn from a tournament, what kind of injury is he/she suffering and what is the kind of prognosis even on return.
All of this might not have a direct impact on your tennis bets but it will go a long way in making you one with the sport, thereby building your tennis expertise.
Utilizing Expert Opinions & Analysis
As mentioned in the sub-section above, it’s good to slowly build one’s own expertise as a tennis punter but at the same time it’s good to utilise the views of tennis experts from around the world.
Many former tennis players take to commentary or media or journalism and express their views on players. One can pick and learn a lot from them – like what’s ailing a particular top five player when he/she comes up against a peer while winning other matches so easily.
Cori Gauff is a Grand Slam winner but before she won her maiden major title she would do well up to a particular point in the bigger tournaments before coming a cropper against a particular brand of player.
Experts reckoned those with a hard-hitting game could dominate her and accordingly, punters could use that to their advantage in matches where Gauff started off a bookmakers’ favourite against a lower-ranked but a power-hitter.
Avoiding Emotional Betting
Some tennis punters end up throwing caution to the wind at the first sign of their adopted strategy going wrong.
It refers to making decisions based on feelings rather than logic or strategy and could lead to impulsive decisions, chasing losses, and taking unnecessary risks.
Emotional betting could result in loss of objectivity, increased risk, long-term consequences, negative psychological impact and diminished decision-making skills.
In order to avoid this it’s important to develop a well-defined strategy based on research and analysis, set clear goals for your betting activities, have loss limits and have the discipline to stick to that, take breaks when needed to avoid emotional upheaval and if all the rest doesn’t work, seek support or counseling.
Setting Realistic Expectations
Tennis betting like betting on any other sport, comes with its own inherent risks.
As a result, setting realistic expectations from tennis betting is necessary to maintain a healthy and sustainable approach to gambling.
By understanding the inherent uncertainties, managing your bankroll wisely, and focusing on long-term profitability, you can derive enjoyment from tennis betting while minimizing the risks involved.
Understanding Tennis Statistics
One very key aspect of betting on any sport in general and tennis in particular is to understand the key tennis statistics and what they mean. Some of these terms or tennis jargons include:
- First serve percentage
- Break point conversion
- Unforced errors
- Double-faults
- Aces and so on
These statistics come in handy to get an overview of what a player’s strengths and weaknesses are, thereby making it easier to take informed decisions while betting on tennis.
Using Tennis Betting Offers
One of the ways that tennis bookmakers market and promote their products and services towards new customers and old, loyal ones is by the use of betting offers. These betting offers, in the form of promo codes at times, can be judiciously used to improve one’s chances of profitability in tennis betting.
Read more about the the pros and cons associated with tennis betting offers and the various current promotions available right now here.
Legal and Responsible Betting
It’s vital that we emphasize the importance of legality and responsible betting when talking of tennis betting.
While we do recognize the excitement and intrigue that tennis betting brings to the sport, it is also essential that you approach it with a keen sense of awareness of legality and responsibility.
Without doubt, legality is paramount. Before you start betting on tennis – or any other sport for that matter – it is imperative to understand the legal landscape of sports betting in your region.
Why this is important is that laws and regulations vary from country to country making it paramount to abide by them to ensure fair play and financial security. Betting on licensed platforms not only safeguards your interests but also upholds the integrity of the sport we love.
Equally important is the promotion of responsible betting practices.
While the thrill of victory can be exhilarating, the risks associated with gambling cannot be overstated. There are numerous examples of betting having become an addiction and while it is the bookmakers and lawmakers’ responsibility to reduce that, it is incumbent upon us, as tennis enthusiasts, to advocate for responsible behavior among our own selves and our fellow fans.
Setting realistic limits on betting expenditure, avoiding chasing losses, and taking breaks when needed are essential components of responsible gambling.
Moreover, it is essential to provide resources and support for those who may be struggling with gambling addiction.
By offering access to counseling services and information on responsible gambling organizations, we can empower individuals to seek help and make informed decisions about their betting activities.
Resources for Tennis Bettors
Some of the top resources you can use for your tennis betting journey include the following websites:
- ATPTour.com
- WTATennis.com
- Individual ATP and WTA tournament websites
- Tennis.com
- TennisTV.com
- TennisWorldUSA.org
- TennisConnected.com
- TennisTonic.com
- Tennis365.com
- TennisExplorer.com
- MatchStat.com
- Perfect-Tennis.com
- Sports news sites like ESPN.com, BBC.com, TheGuardian.com, SkySports.com, si.com, CNN.com etc
- Small and large scale individual blogs like WomensTennisBlog.com, RacketSportsWorld.com, TennisWorldLive.com, HeavyTopSpin.com, TennisNerd.net etc
- Responsible Gambling Help websites like ResponsibleGambling.org, NcpGambling.org/responsible-gambling, BeGambleaware.org among others.
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