Betting odds are rarely static and in this piece we look at what does one mean by the movement of tennis betting odds and the reasons behind those swings.
In one of our earlier pieces, we had explained what exactly are betting odds in tennis and the various formats that are in use to describe them. In it, we had made a brief mention of how odds move in tennis betting and what are the possible reasons behind it.
Here we do a deep dive into the movement of tennis betting odds and their possible implications.
Please note that while odds fluctuate in every form of sports betting, tennis has its own unique aspects to look at from a punter’s point of view and that is why this guide becomes an important one even if you have bet on other sports before this and experienced the ever-changing odds.
Let’s begin with the basics – what exactly does moving of odds in tennis betting means.
What is Tennis Betting Odds Movement?
Movements in betting odds refer to changes or fluctuations in the odds offered by bookmakers for a particular betting market, such as a tennis match or tournament. These movements can occur for various reasons and can provide valuable insights for tennis punters.
Even before we get down to the business of the reasons behind this possible swing of betting odds, we need to look at the some of the intricacies involved with this movement.
Here are some of the terms associated with tennis odds fluctuations that will make things clearer for you.
Odds Shortening
When the tennis betting odds decrease in value, it means they are shortening.
This is an indicator of a growing probability of that particular outcome occurring in the eyes of the bookmakers or betting market.
Let’s assume that Andrey Rublev was initially 2/1 (3.0 in decimal system or +200 in American format) to beat Holger Rune in the final of the 2023 Monte Carlo Masters.
Just prior to the start of that match, it changed to 6/4 (2.5 in decimal system or +150 in the American format).
It means that the odds have shortened between when they were first released and the start of the match.
(incidentally, Rublev, who was 6/4 going into that match, went on to defeat Rune to lift the Monte-Carlo Masters trophy that season!)
Odds Lengthening
If you have understood the concept of shortening tennis odds, then odds lengthening should be a piece of cake. It has the exact opposite meaning.
So essentially, when odds increase in value, they are said to be lengthening. This suggests that the probability of the outcome happening has decreased.
Using the same example mentioned above, just prior to the Monte-Carlo Masters final of 2023, the match winning odds for Rune had changed from 9/20 (1.45 in decimal system or -220 by American odds) when they were first released to 11/20 (1.55 and -182 respectively) just prior to the start of the match.
What the above instance mean is that his odds had lengthened and while he still remained a favourite to win the encounter, he had become a little less favourite.
Odds lengthening is also called odds drifting at times.
Market Movement
This term refers to changes in odds driven by the collective actions of bettors in response to new information or changing circumstances. If a significant number of bettors place bets on one outcome, it can cause the odds to move accordingly.
Typically there are small pre-match market movements most times when odds shorten or lengthen depending on the change of probability but at times there could also be massive movements.
This could happen if news breaks out that a player has failed to recover from an injury or suffered some fitness woe between the previous win and the start of the next round.
Drifting Odds
As mentioned earlier, when odds drift, it means that the odds for that outcome are lengthening because of reasons like injuries or fitness concerns or something similar.
Early Market
The early market refers to the period when odds are first released by bookmakers, often well before the event takes place. During this time, odds can be more volatile as they react to new information and betting activity.
Closing Price & Closing Line Value
The closing price refers to the final odds offered by bookmakers before a tennis event begins. This is often considered an indicator of the most accurate assessment of the event’s outcome by the betting market, incorporating all available information up to that point.
Closing line value (CLV), on the other hand, is an important concept in tennis betting that gives the punter an indication of the price he/she has got as compared to the closing price.
If the price they have got on an outcome beats the market closing price, they have earned a positive closing line value. On the other hand, if the odds have lengthened at the closing price, it’s a negative closing line value.
Tennis Odds Fluctuation Implications
Now that we have an idea about tennis odds movements, we move on to the reasons behind them. Why do tennis betting odds move up and down? Here’s the implications punters can draw from these fluctuations:
Market Sentiment
One of the chief reasons behind a change in the tennis betting odds is the shift in the market sentiment of those betting on a market. What that means is that movements in betting odds reflect changes in market sentiment and the collective opinions of bettors.
Typically, a lot of money flowing into a particular outcome will shorten the odds and that in turn suggests there is an increased confidence or consensus among bettors in favor of that outcome.
Conversely, when odds start increasing, it could imply that more and more punters are betting against that outcome. This could be down to a few reasons including but not restricted to new information, changing conditions, or shifts in sentiment.
Always keep a lookout for changing odds because it could give you vital clues about the need to reassess the bet you have already made or about to make.
News and Information
We have made a brief mention of this in the previous sub-section but to give you an in-depth view, tennis odds could also move based on the release of new information about that particular match.
This could be related to updates around the players involved, including injury reports or even a change in weather which could influence the odds.
Fitness concerns about a player could shorten the winning odds of the player’s opponent while weather could play a part in changing the playing conditions and favour one player more than the other.
For instance, playing on outdoor hardcourt surfaces could be very different from doing the same when the roof is closed in case of rain.
It’s important for tennis bettors to be on top of the latest news reports and stay informed about developments that may impact betting odds.
The good news for tennis bettors is that they don’t have to follow an entire team like in case of a sport like football or cricket in which fitness concerns or other such news for any of those expected to make the final XI could have a bearing on the result.
Market Dynamics
Market dynamic, which is different from market sentiment, are dictated by movements in betting odds because of betting volume, liquidity, and the actions of professional bettors or syndicates.
Syndicates, for example, are groups of bettors who look to work in tandem in a bid to make a living out of betting on sport by taking a collective advantage of the value of the odds on offer.
Significant betting activity or large wagers placed by these syndicates can lead to rapid movements in odds, signaling market confidence or skepticism in certain outcomes.
While betting syndicates may or may not be legal in your region, the point still is they could influence the market and in turn steal away from your chances and you need to be aware of the same.
Value Opportunities
Movements in betting odds can present value opportunities for punters who are quick to react and analyze changes in the market.
If odds shorten on a particular outcome, punters may consider whether the new odds still offer value based on their assessment of the implied probability and the likelihood of the outcome occurring.
Conversely, if odds lengthen, punters may explore whether there is value in opposing the market consensus and betting on the underdog.
Risk Management
Understanding movements in betting odds is essential for effective risk management. Punters can use odds movements to assess the level of uncertainty or volatility in a particular market and adjust their betting strategies and stake sizes accordingly.
Rapid movements in odds may signal increased risk or uncertainty, prompting punters to exercise caution and potentially reduce their exposure to the market.
A Note on Alleged Match-Fixing
On rare occasions, there could be a paradigm shift in the odds for no perceivable reason and it could be an indicator of something more sinister, i.e. match-fixing.
Or at least there have been such allegations made in the past.
One such match came at the 2017 Winston-Salem Open between Ukraine’s Alexandr Dolgopolov and Thiago Monteiro of Brazil. Dolgopolov started off a 1.38 (or 19/50 or -263) to win it, a heavy favourite at that, but as the time for the start of the match started getting closer, something strange happened.
A lot of money entered the betting markets for a Monteiro victory despite his obvious underdog status. By the time the encounter had begun, Dolgopolov had gone from a 1.38 favourite to an underdog at 3.15 (or 43/20 or +215).
Interesting Monteiro went on to win the encounter, raising suspicions around it.
When questioned about it, Dolgopolov had responded with:
“You’re going now to the statistics and saying that it might be fixed because there is a market?”
“You’re writing news or fairy tales? So for me, it’s like I don’t even want to talk about it. I talked to the T.I.U.; I respect their work. I gave all the information needed, and at the end of the day what’s going to happen is: I’m not involved in anything.”
At times like these, bookmakers usually suspend all betting for such tennis matches and report it to the integrity unit.
Final Thoughts on Tennis Odds Movement
Overall, movements in betting odds provide valuable information for punters, offering insights into market sentiment, news developments, and value opportunities. There are multiple factors which influence the movement of tennis odds which are mentioned here in greater detail.
By monitoring and analyzing odds movements effectively, punters can make more informed betting decisions, manage risk, and capitalize on evolving opportunities in the betting market (which we have explained in greater depth here).
Photo Credit: Burak The Weekender