The first round matches at the 2025 ATP Rome Masters will be played on Thursday, May 8 as Matteo Arnaldi, Reilly Opelka and Joao Fonseca lead the charge. You can get the best predictions and tips for the day from this tournament here.
Matteo Arnaldi v Roberto Bautista Agut
Matteo Arnaldi meets Roberto Bautista Agut for the first time on tour.
Arnaldi is a modern baseliner whose game thrives on clay’s high bounce. He moves aggressively into his heavy topspin forehand, uses a fluid one-handed backhand to shift opponents offline, and isn’t afraid to finish rallies at the net.
That blend of variety and footwork was on full display in Madrid, where he upset Novak Djokovic en route to the quarterfinals.
Bautista Agut, by contrast, is the archetypal counterpuncher: his flat, deep groundstrokes frustrate attackers, his legs cover the court relentlessly, and his kick serve can neutralize big-hitters on slower surfaces.
Arnaldi’s career on clay has accelerated rapidly. Before this season he amassed a solid record on red dirt, highlighted by a Challenger title in Sardinia and a fourth-round showing at Roland Garros in 2024.
Bautista Agut is a veteran clay stalwart, boasting a 165-95 lifetime record on the surface with semifinal runs in Monte Carlo and runner-up finishes at ATP 500 events in Barcelona and Hamburg.
This year Arnaldi sits at a modest 12-10 overall but arrives in Rome brimming with confidence from Madrid’s wins; he has taken down three top-15 players already this spring.
Bautista Agut, however, has endured a rocky campaign, posting a 4-11 record through May. Three of those wins have come on clay—in Barcelona, Estoril and Madrid qualifiers—but he’s struggled to string victories together against hard-hitting opponents.
Arnaldi v Bautista Agut Tip: Arnaldi to win in straight sets: 5/6
Jacob Fearnley v Fabio Fognini
They’ve never met on tour making Thursday’s clash their inaugural meeting on clay.
Fognini is the quintessential clay-court artisan. He wields a two-handed backhand slice and a looping topspin forehand that kick high on red dirt, alongside a deft drop shot and net-rushing flair—tools that underpin his eight clay titles, including the 2019 Monte-Carlo Masters.
Fearnley, by contrast, is a right-hander who thrives on aggressive first-strike tennis. The Brit’s solid frame delivers a powerful serve and flat, punchy groundstrokes, and he’s learned to mix in angles and touch after a decorated college career at TCU.
On clay, Fognini’s résumé is storied. The ATP Tour records his career mark at 241–181 (a 57.1 % win rate) on dirt, featuring quarterfinal runs at Roland Garros (2011) and Rome (2018).
Fearnley’s clay experience is still growing—this is his first season on clay, reflecting limited ATP main-draw action .
This year, Fognini has struggled, sitting at 3–8 overall with 0–5 losses in clay main draws at Marrakech, Monte-Carlo and Madrid other than in Challengers.
In contrast, Fearnley arrives on a career-high ranking of No. 57 after a breakthrough run to the third round in Madrid—where he ousted a top-10 seed—and a second-round showing in Barcelona.
His aggressive game has yielded a 15–8 win-loss mark across all levels, including 3–2 on clay this spring, signalling rising confidence on red dirt.
Fearnley v Fognini Tip: Fearnley to win in three sets: 7/2
Joao Fonseca v Fabian Marozsan
Their rivalry arrives fresh with Joao Fonseca and Fabian Marozsán having never met on tour, leaving their head-to-head at 0–0 heading into Rome.
Fonseca, the 18-year-old Brazilian sensation, is a right-handed baseliner with a two-handed backhand and a fearsome forehand that he hits early on the rise. At 1.88 m tall, he pairs that firepower with improving court coverage and a burgeoning mental composure on big points, attributes honed under coaches Franco Davin and Guilherme Teixeira.
Marozsán, 25, stands 1.93 m and operates from the back with a similarly two-handed backhand but favors flatter, punchy groundstrokes to take time away from opponents. His aggressive baseline style is complemented by a high-kick first serve, though clay’s slower rhythm can test his ability to construct points patiently.
On red clay, Fonseca is enjoying a breakthrough season: he’s 6–3 on the surface in 2025, highlighted by an Argentina Open title and has been tipped to be a player to watch out for the season.
Marozsán has had a reasonable clay season—he reached the Munich Open semifinal this spring, falling 6-7, 3-6 to eventual champion Alexander Zverev—showing he can grind deep into tournaments on dirt.
Through 2025, Fonseca boasts a sparkling 23–7 record across all levels, converting his NextGen ATP Finals success into his first ATP Tour victory in Buenos Aires and earning main-draw wins on home soil in Rio and Miami. Marozsán sits at 13–11 for the year, with five of those wins on clay, and has already upset higher seeds in both Challenger and ATP events .
Tactically, Fonseca must use his serve-plus-forehand pattern to keep points short and prevent Marozsán from employing his flat, depth-driven game.
Marozsán, conversely, will look to extend rallies, hunt for half-volley opportunities and bring Fonseca forward with angled backhands. Given Fonseca’s recent title momentum and superior first-strike firepower, he starts as a slight favorite—but Marozsán’s clay nous ensures no margin for error.
Fonseca v Marozsan Tip: Fonseca to win: 2/5
Reilly Opelka v Learner Tien
Reilly Opelka and Learner Tien have never met on tour, leaving their head-to-head at 0–0 heading into Rome.
Opelka’s game is built around his towering 2.11 m frame. The American wields a 220 km/h first serve and a flat, early-strike forehand that can rush opponents on any surface.
His right-handed two-handed backhand and serve-plus-forehand pattern have powered him to four ATP titles, though clay remains his least familiar terrain.
Tien offers a contrasting left-handed assault. The 19-year-old combines flat drives, punchy two-handed backhands and sudden shifts in pace to disrupt rhythm.
His “lefty mix,” as praised after his epic Australian Open upset of Daniil Medvedev, layers precision off both wings with tactical subtlety.
On red clay, Opelka’s résumé is sparse. His lone clay crown came at the 2022 U.S. Men’s Clay Court Championships, but he has often buckled under extended rallies, posting only a handful of wins in past Masters 1000 events.
Tien’s career on the surface is similarly formative: His all-time clay record stands at 5–8, reflecting both qualifying successes and main-draw defeats.
In 2025, Opelka sits at 14–10 overall but is just 1–2 on clay after early exits in Barcelona and Madrid. Tien, meanwhile, is 13–10 this year but has dropped four opening-round matches in clay-court draws, though he claimed two qualifying victories to reach Rome’s main draw.
Tactically, Opelka will look to shorten points with his serve and forehand, aiming to prevent Tien’s lefty angles from developing.
Tien must extend rallies, use depth and switch pace to draw errors from the bigger-hitter. Fitness and patience will be critical in Rome’s altitude and 26 °C heat.
Opelka v Tien Tip: Three sets in the match: 6/5
