Are you looking to take advantage of the fluctuations in the tennis betting odds in the lead-up to a match or a tournament? In this piece we will look at the various ways you can try to profit from the moving tennis odds.
Betting odds represent the probability offered by bookmakers for an event to take place, also called the implied probability as we have discussed in our exhaustive guide on tennis betting odds here.
To understand in more depth how betting odds in tennis move up or down, you can have a look here.
One thing we would definitely recommend you to do is to know the reasons behind the changing betting odds in the lead-up to a tennis match (or tournament).
The knowledge about these factors that determine the change of odds will go a long way in helping you formulate your strategies while betting on tennis. That will also assist you understand some of the strategies mentioned in this article as you attempt to profit from tennis betting.
How to Take Advantage of Tennis Odds Fluctuations
Here’s a list of things you can do in order to improve your chances of tennis betting profitability.
Research and Analysis
We have to put this right at the top. This should be the start of a tennis punter’s long-term betting journey.
If you are looking to make tennis betting – or betting on any sport – a full-time vocation, it is a must to drill right into the basics. Some tennis experts might claim to have a feel for the sport or bet by their gut instinct but even that is borne out of being involved with the sport for ages.
And that automatically involves research and analysis even when they don’t realise they are doing just that.
One need to look at the long-term player form, their recent performances, head-to-head records, playing styles, and other relevant factors like surface, overhead conditions and anything else that can assist the bettor identify potential discrepancies between actual probabilities and odds offered by bookmakers.
This information can guide you in identifying value bets.
Early Betting
Some tennis bettors prefer placing their bets early, i.e. as soon as the odds are released.
This strategy can be beneficial if they believe the odds will move in their favor closer to the match or tournament start time. However, it also carries the risk of missing out on potential improvements in odds if they wait.
However, the reason why we think this is an advantage to the tennis bettor is because at the time of the release of the odds, there’s not a lot of information that is out for even the bookmakers to use to get those odds in their favour.
Bookmakers don’t have to be precise in their offerings either because they know they can change their odds at any time based on the bets made. This, however, means one can jump in early and place a bet based on one’s research and over long periods of time and bet, it could prove to be a beneficial thing.
Monitor Odds Movements
There are those who place their bets and forget about it till the tennis match or tournament is over. I don’t think that’s a strategy that works too well in the long run.
We need to keep track of the betting odds movements and not just with the bookmaker you have used to bet but also across various other ones (which is also why we always recommend you need to open your accounts across different bookmakers).
Doing so can provide valuable insights regarding your bet’s markets odds, because if they start to shorten it could it could indicate increasing confidence in that player’s chances of winning. This will lengthen the odds of the other player’s chances and in turn give you a chance to take advantage by hedging your bets.
Conversely, lengthening odds (increasing) for your bet may suggest doubts or negative news about a player’s performance or condition and you might want to reduce your risk early.
Arbitrage Betting
Some bettors rely solely on arbitrage betting opportunities to make their money but as technology advances such chances are getting lesser and lesser. And yet, you might be able to find yourself the odd arbitrage betting or ‘arbing’ opportunity which you could use to your advantage.
Arbitrage betting involves exploiting differences in odds offered by different bookmakers (as we often say, important to open accounts with different bookmakers!) to guarantee a profit regardless of the outcome.
Bettors can identify arbitrage opportunities by comparing odds across multiple platforms and placing bets on all possible outcomes such that the combined probabilities are less than 100%.
Here’s an example of how an arbitrage betting opportunity could arise.
Assume a match between Lorenzo Musetti and Hubert Hurkacz at the Estoril Open, Bookmaker A offers $1.8 for a Musetti win and $2.1 for Hurkacz to win it. Bookmaker B offers $2.05 for Musetti to come out a winner and $1.9 for Hurkacz to do the same.
In the aforementioned case, if you put $10 on a Hurkacz win with Bookmaker A (to earn you a profit of $11 if he wins) and $10 for a Musetti win with Bookmaker B (to earn you a profit of $10.5 if he wins), whatever is the result of that encounter you would have made some money.
A fair bit of warning here though. Arbitraging isn’t something that bookmakers like for obvious reasons and they could even shut your account if they suspect that’s the case.
Also, such opportunities are often short-lived as bookmakers adjust their odds to balance their books. Not to mention that the odds fluctuate so quickly that you could end up missing the boat despite recognising the chance because the odds have changed in a manner of seconds.
So one might call arbing a risk-free strategy, it requires significant effort, expertise, and capital, and it’s not always easy to find profitable opportunities.
Hedging Bets
Hedging isn’t just a tennis betting or a sports betting term. It is a way by which one reduces risks of losses in any financial instrument, be it tennis betting or the stock market.
In tennis betting, punters can hedge their bets by placing additional punts to reduce potential losses or even ensure profits following the movement of odds.
Hedging of bets can work before the start of the event or even during an encounter with the bookmakers now allowing live tennis betting as well.
Take an example of a match between Ons Jabeur and Maria Sakkari at the Charleston Open. Jabeur has had a good previous record at Charleston and starts a favourite at $1.6 odds but Sakkari’s been in good form coming into the tournament having won a couple of previous tournaments. She still starts at $2.5 on this clay court match.
You think that Sakkari has a good shot at this and before the start of the match you place $10 on a Sakkari win.
As luck would have it, Sakkari starts off well and is 3-1 up in the first set causing the odds to fluctuate and have her now as a favourite at $1.8 while the Jabeur odds have fallen to $2.1.
At this stage, a bet of $10 on a Jabeur victory allows you to hedge your bet, i.e. with either of the player winning you would still come out a winner.
Take Advantage of Market Overreactions
Odds could move drastically at times because of market overreactions to news, rumors, or sudden changes in circumstances.
One of the first things you need to do when you see a drastic change in odds associated with the markets on which you have bet is to assess the reason behind such moves. See if you find value in the new odds on display.
The important thing to note is here is that all bookmakers might not move in a similar way. So using the various odds comparison websites mentioned here, take a look at how these bookies are reacting to the news.
Once you have a fairer idea about it and you have a dispassionate view that the effect of the news has been overpriced in the odds, you could capitalize on this by making a contrarian bet or, as mentioned above, hedge your bets.
Stay Informed
We have already mentioned this in the various sections above but it doesn’t hurt to repeat it.
While the changing odds give you a statistical insight into what’s happening in the world of tennis betting, it is also necessary to keep abreast of the latest news, player updates, injuries, weather conditions, and other factors influencing odds movements.
It is vital to understand the reasoning behind it so that one doesn’t go blind into it.
By staying informed, bettors can react quickly to new information and make more informed betting decisions.
Use Betting Exchanges
Betting exchanges allow bettors to act as both punter and bookmaker, offering the opportunity to lay bets (betting against an outcome) as well as back bets (betting for an outcome).
This flexibility enables bettors to take advantage of changing odds and market dynamics to maximize potential profits. We will cover the laying of bets in greater detail in another article but a quick meaning of this is basically placing a bet on something to not happen.
So, let’s assume that Rafael Nadal has been out of tennis for a few months because of fitness concerns and yet, enters the Monte-Carlo Masters as bookmakers’ favourite to win the tournament at 3/1 (or 4.0) because, obviously, he is Rafa and it’s clay.
You believe that Nadal might be a little rusty, hasn’t quite recovered from his injury and might not actually win it this time. Basically anybody else but Nadal.
Nadal is a punter’s favourite and a lot of bettors put their money on him so much so that his winning odds change to 2/1 (3.0) and suddenly instead of 1.32 that you were getting earlier to lay Nadal, it’s changed to 1.48.
This could be a case of markets overreacting to brand Rafael Nadal and offering solid odds to lay him (1.48 instead of 1.32).
Final Words on Profitting Using Tennis Odds Movement
By incorporating these strategies into their approach to tennis betting, your website readers can enhance their chances of making profitable decisions and achieving success in the tennis betting arena.
However, it’s essential to emphasize the importance of responsible gambling practices and the inherent risks involved in betting.